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From the Blue Dragon to the Hands of Yartar - Ch.3 (+1 level, Kraken's Gamble) - Session 16
https://www.reddit.com/stormkingsthundecomments/kc5nai/the_crashed_tower_of_the_late_zephyros_chapter_35/ - Previously our heroes found Zephyros' tower crashed in the wilderness and a bunch of stone creatures were attempting to burn all his notes; among them was a Large Dragon also made of stone but also possessed a regular Dragon's lightning breath. After crumbling all their enemies to rubble the party gathers up as much of their late Cloud Giant friend's notes as they could and put a full day's travel between them and the tower in case any other statue-like minions showed up to finish the job. .
The cast of DnD Comrades.
- Ransom - Tiefling Cleric of Thor.
- Paxton Hightower - Human Wizard.
- Otto Norona - Gnome Rogue/Fighter.
- Creedun Grungerock - Dwarven Bard.
- Sir Oswald Pinkerton - Human Paladin/Warlock.
.
Paxton spends a good part of the evening using a Language-Comprehension spell to pour over Zephyros' journal and other loose pages. He finds pages of recipes, philosophical musings, and several pages relevant to their previous experience together, along with where he went after he dropped them off in Triboar.
- 1st Page - "I picked up a group of Adventurers yesterday and am giving them a lift to their destination: Triboar. Nice bunch, not nearly as rowdy or treasure-grabby as some Adventuring groups. I especially liked that extra-small-folk with the eyepatch - Otto was his name. He got way to high off some of my less-potent pipe grass and... (at this point Paxton stopped reading to the group as he realized Otto still doesn't know what he did when he was blackout stoned).
- 2nd Page - "A Storm Giant Herald named Iymrith, from the court of Maelstrom visited me yesterday. She was quite condescnding to my guests, but it didn't feel right correcting a Storm Giant - Ordning or no Ordning. Iymrith claimed the Lords' Alliance murdered Queen Neri, and when King Hekaton went to confront them he went missing. Iymrith also added that Hekaton's youngest daughter sits on the throne, but that her inexperience is throwing the court into chaos and weakening the Storm Giants' Influence.
- 3rd Page - "That thing the Storm Giant Herald told me last week has been weighing heavily on my mind. If the Lords' Alliance is truly behind Neri's death and Hekaton's disappearance, might they also be responsible for the Ordning breaking in the first place? I will finally make my pilgrimage to the 'Eye of the All-Father' to seek answers for myself."
- 4th Page - "This temple is much more magnificent that I'd imagined; our ancestors were the pinnacle of Giant-kind to have made all this. The bad news is that it's about as cold as one would expect this far North. On the other hand, for some good news: I finally formulated some pipe-grass with the right potency for myself but now I'm TOO high - I grabbed the wrong weapon and stumbled off with it, hahahahahahaHahaha. Did I really just take the time to write out 'haha?' Oh man..."
- 5th Page - "They've been pursuing me since I cleared Lurkwood and will be upon me soon. The Dream Spell failed - my friends, if you find this: if what the Oracle told me is true, then I..."
.
After some deliberation, the group decided the notes don't provide enough new information for them to step away from their quest to find the Giant-Slaying weapon presumably left behind in Yartar by the missing Harthol Zymorven so they continue on, but mean to seek out more answers about this 'Eye of the All-Father' at a later time.
Around midday Paxton's Owl familiar communicates to him, "Don't look up, but there appears to be a dragon circling high above us."
Paxton quietly lets his comrades know of the situation. He casts Mage Armor on himself and Sir Oswald casts Armor of Agathys on himself. Their casting of spells seems to have alerted the dragon of their awareness of them as it begins to dive. Paxton then casts Invisibility on himself.
There's a nearby tor jutting out of the bog nearby that Paxton suggests they all run towards, but they only make it a little ways off the road before realizing that Sir Oswald is staying in place, trying to draw the Dragon's ire to himself.
In a flash of cobalt blue, the Dragon both forcefully and gracefully lands on a nearby boulder still some 60' from them. With its bulk nearly the size of a large covered wagon, it puffs out the yellow plates of its underbelly and cocks its head as it stares down its snout and horn towards the group. In a deep, steady voice it speaks, "Greetings little travelers. Are you lost? From where have you come? To where do you travel?"
Not wanting to divulge too much information Creedun only mentions they're traveling to Yartar and they didn't mean to trespass on the Dragon's territory.
"I'm only here to talk, let's drop the spells and magic in the name of diplomacy; I know there's a 5th member of your group skulking around somewhere. Now, normally I'd demand some tribute for such a trespass," the Young Blue Dragon continues, "but today I'm interested only in information. Just last night I passed the strangest thing - what looked like a tower... that had fallen from the sky... just off the road? You wouldn't have happened to have noticed that too would have, traveling past there towards Yartar as you say."
Creedun asks the Dragon if they can just be on their way and that they mean no harm or disrespect. Sir Oswald musters as much Charisma as he can (which is quite a lot) and says they'd be willing to trade information for information). He asks the Blue Dragon what he found in the tower, what he thought of it, and why he wants to know more?
"I found a dead Giant in the tower, I found it rather odd, and it is my business to know what happens in my territory." The Dragon adds with a thin veil of forced patience, "I'm normally not so generous but you amuse me human; I've now answered 3 of your questions and you none of mine. What do you know of the tower?"
Otto chimes in saying the Cloud Giant Zephyros had been their friend once and he believes he'd been trying to get a message through to them.
The Dragon grins a cruel smile, "As I suspected. I will add you to the collection of the Queen of Statues - the Gathering Storm!" as it pumps its mighty wings to take flight.
Roll Initiative!
.
Creedun conjures two Giant Eagles which Grapple the Dragon before it takes off.
This is obviously a cunning foe as it completely ignores the beasts and unleashes a torrent of deadly lightning into the Dwarven Bard, shocking him so badly that it's impossible to maintain concentration. As the Eagles poof into nothingness, the Dragon flies up 40' above the ground and begins circling the group.
Otto is struggling to hit the dragon at this range with his Hand Crossbow and uses his new martial training to stow his shield and attack with his Shortbow at the same time.
Paxton appears next to Sir Oswald, and laying a hand on him casts a spell allowing the heavily armored Knight to fly!
Sir Oswald streaks towards the Dragon and positions himself above it, striking mightily into the Dragon's back twice.
Ransom makes a Spiritual Weapon appear next to Dragon to slash at him, while Creedun resummons his Giant Eagles, though this time the Dragon fends off their grapple.
The Blue Dragon mauls Sir Oswald several times then tries to fly away, knowing that even if the Eagle can keep up, the Knight can't. He's betting that his scales can fend off their attacks and is partly correct, both eagles fail to land even a scratch. Sir Oswald with a lucky swing strikes a critical weak spot behind the Dragon's shoulder and adds a charged-up Smite into the fleeing Dragon
Paxton takes advantage of the Dragon having left the cluster of his allies and centers a Fireball on the Dragon. As the dragon flies out of the bursting flame it is singed and starting to look quite hurt.
The resummoned Giant Eagles catch up and both successfully grapple the Dragon as the 3 of them tumble to the ground, WHAM! Still thrashing on the ground the Dragon bites and claws the injured Eagles, causing both of them to poof from existence.
The Dragon takes an expert shot from Otto's Short Bow and not only looks very hurt, but for the first time shows actual fear itself. It moves to retreat, but instead of flying away it begins to burrow into the soft boggy soil. The group only sees it burrow in 10' and then loose sight of it in the dark tunnel.
Paxton throws a fireball right at the opening of the tunnel, hoping the edges of the flaming blast will catch the Dragon. He hears no sound as to whether it hit or missed.
Even running at top speed Otto isn't quick enough to reach the hole before the Dragon can burrow further in and the tunnel turns at such an angle the Gnome can't blind-fire in. Then he remembers that he has one more "Ka-boomer" left from the merchant cart they encountered south of Calling Horns. He lights the fuse and tosses it into the tunnel. 4 seconds later
KABOOM!!! followed by a screeching roar of pain.
Sir Oswald flies down into the tunnel with no hesitation in hopes to finish off the Dragon but emerges a couple seconds later saying, "It's dead." The Kaboomer had blown open the side of its face as smoke poured up and viscera dripped down from its eye.
The group tries harvesting some scales and teeth, but damages their trophies in the process. Sir Oswald opens the Dragon's belly to find a couple human skulls and bones, along with a partially digested dagger. He also insists on spending more time to try to acquire the Dragon's snout horn. Paxton puts his Secure Hut spell over the tunnel while he works because spending several hours exposed in the wilderness doesn't seem like a safe plan.
The rest of the day and a half journey to Yartar is uneventful and everyone arrives fully rested.
.
They find a contingency of guards inspecting everyone who arrives to the city's outer gate. They make their way inside and get food recommendations from a cheery local man.
They're directed to the man's favorite joint - a "dive" dinner on the edge of the "bad part of town - called Karletta's Table.
There they find a one story flat-roofed building hemmed in by larger buildings that appear to have 3rd-story additions built atop older structures. Karletta's Table has crates stacked up outside that several young street kids are using to play and climb on, some have even climbed up onto the roof and are playing up there, another youngster in dirty clothes runs out from behind the diner with a fist-full of bread.
The group walks through the swinging saloon-style doors and gets their bearings in the dim light inside. Most of the booths have privacy walls, but they see a few folk who look down on their luck, a few more working class people, and a couple women arm-wrestling.
Behind the bar is a window looking into the kitchen where clanging pots and pans and sizzling can be heard. A half-elf with dark blue dyed hair cropped short on one side, wearing leather armor with an apron over it comes into view yelling at some staff around the corner, "You don't have that ready yet? By the gods, what am I paying you for, eh?" She notices the party standing in the dinning area and immediately switches her demeaner to a sweet and welcoming smile. "Hey sorry nobody was there to welcome you, feel free to seat yourselves! Someone will be with you in a moment :) " She returns into the part of the kitchen out of view and continues commanding the kitchen staff in an authoritative tone.
Creedun suggests they sit where he can watch the women arm-wrestle and after a few rounds he approaches them with Otto and asks if he can challenge one of them for a round of drinks. There's some brief chit-chat and the women seem fond of taunting Creedun and Otto, mostly in good fun. They tell the adventurers that they work the docks in the fishing industry. Otto mentions that he's a fisher as well and that's how he lost his eye.
One of the women cranks her shoulder a bit as though it's stiff and says to the other, "What do you think Sally? You wanna take 'im?"
Sally, "Are you gunna need some books to sit on, guy?" alluding to the Dwarf's stoutness. "How 'bout instead a drinks though we wrestle for the story of your friend's lost eye. I win against short an stout 'ere - you tell us your tale, little guy?" Otto agrees.
After a particularly close match Sally pins Creedun and Otto launches into a captivating tale from his youth when their boats' nets caught a Kraken, and how he had to climb into the nets to free the beast. In the process he slipped and severed the end off one of the Kraken's tentacles, fell back into the boat and the knife "poked him in the eye."
There is a long pause. Eventually Sally says, "Pffffft, I call bullsh!t There's no way that was a Kraken. That's a mythical beast; even if one does exist there's been no claims of seeing one in a hundred years at least. Plus, it would have dragged your ship to the bottom before you had a chance to free it."
Otto insists he's not lying.
Sally adds, "look, I'm sure you were entangled with something big and tentacle-y, maybe a Giant Octopus, maybe a newborn Kraken, but if that were a real one you'd be a skeleton at the bottom of the ocean right now."
There's a little more benign chit-chat. Otto refers to the women as "madams" which they get a hoot out of. Then he uses his Thieves Cant to see if there's more to them than meets the eye and mentions being "a part of their guild" and "wondering if they could help him."
The women look at each other and Sally says, "Let's step outside for a chat little guy. Just us and and you; your friends can stay in here and order their meal." Otto assures his party that it'll be fine. Paxton keeps watch on the situation with his Owl Familiar waiting outside.
Sally calls to the kitchen, "Hey Karletta could we get some more bread" and they're given a basket of bread as they walk with Otto out a back door.
.
Outside Sally laughs and says he must be new in town and there's no way he's part of their guild. They ask what he wants and he mentions he's looking for someone. Sally scoffs, saying they don't point strangers to members of their guild. He explains - still in somewhat vague terms - he's looking for a Noble's son who's gone missing. He offers them 50gp if they can help. Sally leans to the other woman and whispers something.
Paxton, listening through his Owl's senses hears her ask her friend, "Do you think he's talking about Mel?"
Sally tells Otto to go back inside with his friends and they'll be back with their friend who can tell him more. Neither Otto nor Paxton (through his Familiar) can discern any fowl-play or malice so they wait.
In the meantime Karletta had come by to take the group's order and comments about how quiet Paxton is and asks why he's sitting upright with his eyes closed. Creedun tells her his friend is just really tired and asks for a bib to put on the wizard.
Otto comes back in just as Ransom is pinning Creedun in their own arm-wrestling match.
.
Paxton has his owl follow the two women. One sets the basket of bread down on a nearby crate but the owl follows them to a warehouse where they disappear inside for several minutes. When they reemerge they're accompanied by a young woman and an older halfling woman; they all head back towards the diner. Paxton tells his owl to check out the bread basket, but when he gets there there are barely even crumbs.
The four women reenter Karletta's Table. Without pause the Halfling woman jumps up onto the bench, eye-level with Ransom and the others "I hear you want to ask my friend Mel some questions. I'm just here to make sure it goes smoothly, okay?"
Mel pulls up a chair and sits at the end of the booth. Between asking questions to Mel and the Halfling, they learn:
- Mel and Harthol Zymorven ran to Yartar with some of his father's stolen property to start a new life.
- Harthol ended up "also stealing her heart before proving he was a snake." He got involved with another woman on a Riverboat gambling cruise. They were seen leaving the riverboat together, but he was never seen again after that.
- They must have gone back to his apartment because everyone of his that was of value was gone - including gold, platinum, gems, and a weapon stolen from his father's keep.
- The woman always wears a purple dress and is often seen entering and leaving the riverboat casino.
- Their Thieves Guild - The Hands of Yartar - want payback on the woman in the purple dress, but (a) can't gain access to the cruise (they suspect a traitor in their midst), and (b) has a strict code of no assassinations outside of a hired contract. By pointing the Adventurers in her direction the guild hopes the situation will escalate and revenge will unfold naturally.
- The casino cruise itself belongs to a rival of the Hands of Yartar, so any additional mischief or trouble caused for them is a bonus in the eyes of the guild.
- The gambling boat - called 'The Grand Dame' - is owned by a man named Khaspere Drylund, who lives aboard the vessel.
- The best way to gain access to the cruise would be to pose either as staff (rowers, chefs/servers, musicians, game table facilitators, escorts) or to attend as wealthy guests who come to network and to gamble in the casino.
.
Next time - All Aboard the Grand Dame!
submitted by Yesh_Vroo to stormkingsthunder [link] [comments]
[OC] Ch.1 Gamble woes part 1
“There is gambling and there is saving, relai is for saving” interview with Julian Liniger, CEO of Relai.ch (x-post from /r/Bitcoin)
“There is gambling and there is saving, relai is for saving” interview with Julian Liniger, CEO of Relai.ch
“There is gambling and there is saving, relai is for saving” interview with Julian Liniger, CEO of Relai.ch (x-post from /r/cryptocurrency)
Report - Ch. 3 Session 2 - Moog to Kraken's Gamble
Recap: on the road to Yartar, the party spotted the tower with the sad singing eminating from it and approached.
Report: Glinda made sense of the dirge as she is the only party member to speak giant. Too bad she stayed behind while the rest of the PCs investigated. She high-tailed it to the group to let them know it was a song about lost love, so maybe don't kill this one right away. A tense encounter ensued, but the party ended up getting some info about Chief Guh and Grudd Haug from her. They ended up just leaving her there. Some members of the party want to come back later to help her.
So they continued on their journey, stopped to rest, woke up the next morning to Giant Seagulls at the river. They investigate and discover a nobleman turned into a jellyfish man in a cocoon. (Think the Senator from X-Men) He promises them riches if they return him home.
When they get to his home, his mother is more concerned with who did it, rather than her son. The party agrees to investigate and holes up in a high-class pub figuring someone may be a target. They see some Hand of Harter thieves at work in the bar, relieving some stupid rich boys of their coin purses. But they don't take the bait to meet the Hand of Yartar.
Instead, they headed to the Grand Dame casino. When they arrive they see well-to-do folks heading in, and rabble being turned away. Zanetah the barbarian doesn't stand for that at all, and has already warned about SMASH! if they are turned away. Need a strategy to avoid fighting at the Grand Dame..
Next game is Monday night
submitted by scottiebitter to stormkingsthunder [link] [comments]
Hoping to see if gambling will net me a bit of spare ch-
[ReRead] Season 02 | Chapter 69 - 80
Last Week, we had the first workshop game, this week prepare for the next one, as battle allegiances change behind the scene...
Battle X Gamble
Ch.69: 30F - Battle x Gamble Ch.70: 30F - Battle x Gamble (2) Ch.71: 30F - Battle x Gamble (3) Ch.72: 30F - Battle x Gamble (4) Ch.73: 30F - Battle x Gamble (5) Ch.74: 30F - Battle x Gamble (6) Ch.75: 30F - Battle x Gamble (7) Ch.76: 30F - Battle x Gamble (8)
The Truth
Ch.77: 30F - The Truth (1) Ch.78: 30F - The Truth (2) Ch.79: 30F - The Truth (3) Ch.80: 30F - The Truth (4)
Discuss!
submitted by TowerOfGod to TowerofGod [link] [comments]
[Disc] Acma game Ch. 25~ gambling is fun, when everything is on the line.
submitted by MeliodasUQ to manga [link] [comments]
Y7 Bug Farming?
So I just got the game three days ago and have stopped myself grinding levels and cash enough to unlock the weaponsmith/armoursmith lady. I was wondering if there is any way to farm bugs so I can craft Namba’s poison weapon? I think I’ve only come across bugs on trees three times in total so any help on how to find them more easily would be appreciated.
submitted by Andrassa to yakuzagames [link] [comments]
Mahito in chapter 130
Recently, I've been thinking about why Sukuna didn't kill Mahito in his innate domain. I didn't know why it happened and making a post about it yesterday made me realize that a lot of us don't know and most of us have completely different takes on it too. I think I found a reasonable answer as to why Mahito lived and I would like to share it.
First of all let's assume a few things
- Mahito did touch Yuji's soul. He specifically stated that he isn't skilled enough to separate Yuji from it. Another important aspect as to why I think he did it is that he visited Sukuna in his innate domain and the only way to do it is by touching his soul which Mahito's domain does passively.
- Mahito didn't have any defense against Sukuna.
What was Mahito's plan? I think he gambled. In ch 129 he says "It's all or nothing" while casting the domain. He hoped Sukuna wouldn't have enough time to react. I don't think it worked tho. I see it as Sukuna paying respect to him by not killing him. Why would he show respect to anyone? Well, that's pretty simple. When he was fighting Jogo he told him
this. I think Mahito is doing exactly that. Sukuna liked it about him and decided to let him live. Important thing to notice about the scene is that for the first time ever Sukuna isn't standing above the one who is visiting him. He is standing right infront of him as if they were equal.
submitted by DokkanGlobalPlayer to JuJutsuKaisen [link] [comments]
Wednesday, 3 February 2020
Wednesday, 3 February 2020
Live Updates
Background Information: https://www.reddit.com/WallStreetTradewiki
At Close of Tuesday
Batch 1: - DVA Davita Inc 111.64
- AYI Acuity Brands, Inc. 119.7
- CSRA Cisadane Sawit Raya PT 298
- GME GameStop Corp. 90
- SPCE Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc 48.58
- BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR 254.5
- BYND Beyond Meat Inc 167.16
Maybe:
- FOXA Fox Corp Class A 30.51
- FOX Fox Corp Class B 29.55
- VIAC CBS Corporation Common Stock 50.26
- VNO Vornado Realty Trust 37.47
- NLSN Nielsen Holdings PLC 22.11
- IRM Iron Mountain Inc 32.16
- RIG Transocean LTD 3.1
- MAC Macerich Co 12.31
- FOSL Fossil Group Inc 13.54
- ANR Anatara Lifesciences Ltd 0.18
- CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc 15.18
- ARG Argos Resources Ltd 3.21
- RRC Range Resources Corp. 9.28
- SDC SmileDirectClub Inc 13.43
- LI Li Auto Inc. 30.2
- XPEV Xpeng Inc - ADR 47.01
- PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc 31.02
- AAWW Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc. 52.39
- BP BP plc 20.75
- MT ArcelorMittal SA 21.78
Batch 2: Company | Current Price | Average Price
- Las Vegas Sands Corp. LVS 52.16 Call 55.32
- U.S. Bancorp USB 44.25 Call 47.49
- Dollar General Corp. DG 195.35 Call 211
- Verizon Communications Inc. VZ 54.5 Call 57.54
- Everest Re Group Ltd RE 214.11 Call 233.11
- Tractor Supply Company TSCO 143.18 Call 153.41
- Nucor Corporation NUE 50.47 Call 55.4
- Greatland Gold plc GGP 26.48 Call 32.37
- Quantumscape Corp QS 42.58 Call 56.05
- Air Transport Services Group Inc. ATSG 26.35 Call 28.16
- Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM 26.11 Potential Call 27.37
- Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc HII 159.62 Potential Call 169.65
- Textron Inc. TXT 45.9 Potential Call 49.16
- CH Robinson Worldwide Inc CHRW 86.62 Potential Call 96.6
- Delta Air Lines, Inc. DAL 38.8 Potential Call 40.5
- United Airlines Holdings Inc UAL 40.83 Potential Call 43.7
- PVH Corp PVH 85.61 Potential Call 99.86
- State Street Corp STT 70.8 Potential Call 76.41
- Fastenal Company FAST 46.47 Potential Call 49.5
- DISH Network Corp DISH 30.07 Potential Call 32.27
- Dow Inc DOW 54.61 Potential Call 57.97
- Discover Financial Services DFS 85.33 Potential Call 94.09
- Brown-Forman Corporation Class B BF.B 72.96 Potential Call 75.44
- Citigroup Inc C 59.58 Potential Call 64.09
- Copart, Inc. CPRT 113.96 Potential Call 117.25
- Edison International EIX 59.17 Potential Call 61.22
- Republic Services, Inc. RSG 91.87 Potential Call 94.79
- Rollins, Inc. ROL 37 Potential Call 38.64
- Waste Management, Inc. WM 113 Potential Call 115.93
- Baxter International Inc BAX 76.52 Potential Call 80.83
- Edwards Lifesciences Corp EW 83.97 Potential Call 88.08
- Carnival Corp CCL 19.45 Potential Call 20.52
- Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd NCLH 22.94 Potential Call 25.01
- Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL 68.68 Potential Call 72.63
- Church & Dwight Co., Inc. CHD 82.69 Potential Call 86.48
- Roper Technologies Inc ROP 398 Potential Call 424.78
- Fortive Corp FTV 66.57 Potential Call 70.14
- Illinois Tool Works Inc. ITW 198.24 Potential Call 205.58
- Xylem Inc XYL 97.18 Potential Call 104.05
- Anthem Inc ANTM 298.99 Potential Call 324.24
- Humana Inc HUM 376.99 Potential Call 417.17
- Lincoln National Corporation LNC 47.44 Potential Call 51.33
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- Halliburton Company HAL 18.02 Potential Call 20.34
- Phillips 66 PSX 68.66 Potential Call 73.4
- McCormick & Company, Incorporated MKC 89.48 Potential Call 94.12
- Amcor PLC AMCR 10.93 Potential Call 11.41
- Westrock Co WRK 41.89 Potential Call 45.69
- Merck & Co., Inc. MRK 77.77 Potential Call 82.22
- W. R. Berkley Corp WRB 63.95 Potential Call 66.22
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- Coca-Cola Co KO 48.96 Potential Call 49.88
- Celanese Corporation CE 125.02 Potential Call 133.56
- LyondellBasell Industries NV LYB 88.84 Potential Call 94.52
- Genuine Parts Company GPC 97.47 Potential Call 102.72
- Altria Group Inc MO 41.57 Potential Call 41.94
- Philip Morris International Inc. PM 79.27 Potential Call 82.14
- Arconic Corp (PITTSBURGH) ARNC 26.67 Potential Call 29.13
- Nuformix PLC NFX 2.7 Potential Call 2.75
- Jura Energy Corp JEC 0.3 #N/A 0.2
- NK Lukoil PAO LUK 60.2 Potential Call 62.99
- Royal Dutch Shell plc ADR Class B RDS.B 33.87 Potential Call 37.92
- Carnival plc CUK 16.93 Potential Call 17.71
- Suncor Energy Inc. SU 16.85 Potential Call 18.34
- Alcoa Corp AA 19.11 Potential Call 22.72
At Open of Wednesday
Batch 1: - ABMD ABIOMED, Inc. 329.6
- PKI PerkinElmer, Inc. 144.14
- STE Steris PLC 178.18
- GWW W W Grainger Inc 360.27
- SPOT Spotify Technology SA 316.55
Maybe:
- ANR Anatara Lifesciences Ltd 0.2
- NFX Nuformix PLC 2.51
- ARG Argos Resources Ltd 3
- OI O-I Glass Inc 13.11
- INO Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc 14.43
- HYLN Hyliion Holdings Corp 15.77
Batch 2: Company | Current Price | Average Price
Call
- Verizon Communications Inc. VZ 54.42 57.34
- Pfizer Inc. PFE 35.04 37.00
- Progressive Corp PGR 86.74 93.91
- Quantumscape Corp QS 46.70 55.18
Potential
- CH Robinson Worldwide Inc CHRW 86.71 96.35
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX 215.19 234.89
- Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd NCLH 23.20 24.94
- Church & Dwight Co., Inc. CHD 83.10 86.33
- Fortive Corp FTV 66.41 70.03
- Xylem Inc XYL 96.17 103.93
- Humana Inc HUM 385.37 415.82
- Baker Hughes Co BKR 20.78 22.39
- Kinder Morgan Inc KMI 13.91 15.16
- McCormick & Company, Incorporated MKC 88.51 93.94
- Amcor PLC AMCR 10.95 11.39
- Procter & Gamble Co PG 128.82 135.02
- Merck & Co., Inc. MRK 77.92 82.08
- Perrigo Company PLC PRGO 42.25 44.86
- Science Applications International Corp SAIC 93.35 99.27
- Royal Dutch Shell plc ADR Class B RDS.B 33.72 37.76
- Air Transport Services Group Inc. ATSG 26.14 27.93
- BP plc BP 20.82 23.99
- Alcoa Corp AA 19.14 22.47
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www.paypal.me/WallStreetTrader
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Suggest tickers, I will add them to the database.
Open Added Approximately 30 minutes after open.
I will make a newsletter or website, and keep you guys updated with my stocks as well. While giving you output data which I receive. Without missing out on any stocks and referencing all stocks (even stocks which the bot says no to). Though I "may" charge something but provide extra data, but saying that I will
not stop posting on here.
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Game Channels: state channels for the gambling industry with built-in PRNG -- Ethresear.ch/State channels
A closer look at "Ymir wants to eat all the shifters" theory
I was thinking about the “Ymir wants to consume all titan shifters” theory, and it actually seems to align with a lot of plot events in this arc, and explains some of the weirder things people complained about. The general idea I came to is:
Ymir is leading the titan shifters to the Founding titan so that she can consume them (as a requirement to escape PATHS);
Eren is unaware of that.
Let’s go over the potential evidence:
1) “The talk” in 133 is weird
- First, the characters on the plane bring up that it’s strange that Eren is allowing titan shifters to keep their powers. Immediately after, they are warped into PATHS. Instead of receiving an direct answer from Eren, there is a pause where they all call for him. After they talk for some time, child!Eren appears in front of paths tree and gives a speech. That speech is… strange.
- One of Eren’s motivations that he brings up in 130 is “I want my friends to live long happy lives.” Supposedly it’s one of the main reasons he rumbles. Back in Paradis, he hid his goal from his friends, lied to them (ch. 112) and even put them in jail. But now, he tells them that he allows them to keep their freedom so they can come fight him (and die)? Why not before? Why not state his intentions to Armin and Mikasa in 112 if he values their freedom so much? Surely they had a better chance to fight him back when he wasn’t a god?
- “I won’t gamble Paradis’ future”, but he still gambles it by allowing his friends to fight him. Unless it’s not a gamble because he is so OP they can’t possibly kill him. Then what is this freedom he gives them, freedom to commit suicide by Founder? How is that different than “stealing the freedom” from the world? After all, he also allows the world military forces to try and fight him back.
- Annie, Pieck, Reiner, Falco are not his friends. He clearly classifies them as enemies. Yes, even poor Falco, he transformed next to him during the Declaration of war. Did he let them keep their powers so they can help his friends out or what?
- Eren does not open his mouth during the speech. Not once. It’s just a disembodied voice. He doesn’t move either, he just stands there, menacingly. Notice how child!Eren in 131 was very agitated and actually, you know, talked with his mouth. Eren in 133 looks and behaves exactly like Ymir – he even has her trademark shadowed eyes.
- When his friends try to get closer to him, they get teleported back. At the same moment, Ymir appears next to Eren. Why?
My theory: 131!Eren is a real one. 133!Eren is a puppet created by Ymir to trick the Alliance, and she gives them that speech about freedom so that they don’t try to inquire further into why the hell they are allowed to use their titan powers. The speech is covering up her real goal.
2) Eren is likely not awake right now
- We see him asleep in 131. It’s the closing panel of the chapter and the last we see of Eren’s real body. In fact, we do not see him awake inside his titan since ch.123. It’s probably important and may be a hint that he is still sleeping.
- He does not react to the arrival of the Alliance. We do not see his POV, we do not see him in PATHS reacting to his friends trying to fight him. Armin got suffocated, possibly to death, and we don’t see Eren’s reaction? It's hard to believe that he does not give a shit about killing his childhood best friend.
- Hell, Armin even spells out that Ymir is the one fighting them. It’s possible that Armin is just being delusional about Eren’s intent to murder him, but it’s likely indeed Ymir, especially with the focus she gets in ch.135.
- There is a bit of a discrepancy between the Founder’s abilities at the start of the Rumbling and in the current battle. In ch.122, Eren gives a command to remove all the titan hardening on the Island; the command is so unspecific and wide that it removes Reiner’s armor and breaks Annie’s crystal. There is also a weird bit where Zeke’s titans are being left uncontrolled and start to wreck Shiganshina. Yet now, the Founder is able to manifest multiple past shifters and give them precise commands. I think it’s likely that Eren is inexperienced with the Founder (and thus was only able to give general commands like the removal of all hardening), but Ymir, who had a full experience as the Founding titan during her life, and spent 2000 years building titans in PATHS, has a much better control over the power.
- We barely see any coherent thoughts from current!Eren. The only sequence from his recent POV that was not a flashback is him enjoying “The Scenery”. He does not seem too aware of his surroundings during that – he just enjoys soaring above the clouds, talks about freedom, and then accidentally gives Armin a call. The whole sequence is so trippy, it’s like he is having a dream. So it’s not even that his body is asleep in real world and he is controlling things from PATHS, I think he is just dreaming and not consciously controlling anything.
I think that Eren fell asleep soon after the Rumbling started. Ymir is currently in full control of the Founding titan.
3) Ymir’s motive and how it can be different from Eren’s
- What is Eren’s goal? To rumble the rest of the world to secure freedom and future of Paradis island. But why would Ymir want that? Some people point out that she would want revenge for her horrible life and afterlife. But why go after the outside world then? She has no reason to hate non-Eldians specifically, because the Eldian tribe is the one that oppressed her in the first place. Besides, the outside world has plenty of Eldians, so you can’t use an argument that she wants to protect her descendants. She doesn’t have any ties to Paradis specifically – that country formed centuries after her death. Basically, it feels like she has little reason to want the Rumbling and is just along for the ride.
- So, there are two reasons for why Ymir would support Eren. Option one, he was the first person ever to be kind to her, so she became his simp. It’s an understandable reason, but it’s very simple and it means Ymir’s whole character revolves solely around protecting Eren. With how much focus has been given to her in this volume, and how mysterious Ymir has been, I doubt that. So we get to option two: supporting Eren will allow her to achieve her wish.
- What is Ymir’s wish? It’s almost certainly to escape PATHS and end titan powers. In ch.122, Eren gives her a choice to stay in PATHS forever or end it all. The Final volume preview states "A girl has a dream. She dreams of a world free from curses and fate." PATHS are both a curse (she cannot escape them) and tie her to a fate (fixed timeline).
- How can supporting Eren help her with leaving PATHS? A lot of people theorize that Eren will get her out after the Rumbling because he said that “she can end this now”. And with how we still haven’t seen all that Eren knows, it’s easy to assume that he knows of the way to free her. However, while it’s a reasonable guess, it’s not actually stated in the manga. It’s equally possible that Eren knows that Ymir will be freed due to his future vision, but doesn’t know how to get there. This opens a possibility of Ymir working on a way to free herself.
(Sure, you may handwave it and say “well duh, she’ll reincarnate as Historia’s baby”, but, like, how? What are the mechanics behind PATHS reincarnation? If it’s not explained, it will be an asspull worse than flying Falco).
Why I think Ymir’s current goal is to consume all titan shifters:
- Going with my assumption that the PATHS convo in 133 was done by Ymir, she is letting the Alliance keep their powers so they can come to fight the Founder. Why would she not fight them back on Paradis? Well, it’s probably because Eren was still awake back then and he wouldn’t want to eat Armin. Notice how nobody had a story reason to shift before the battle at the port (Pieck doesn’t count because she just stayed in her titan all the time), and the port battle is a day and a half after the Rumbling started. Eren is possibly asleep during it.
- Falco’s birb form. Look, it’s possible that it’s just a weirdly explained plot device to get Annie back into the fight. It’s also possible that Ymir gave Falco a new form so he can get himself and Annie to her after they split from the Alliance.
- I. Yeagerist battle – Falco shifts and has no wings
- II. Annie decides to not fight Eren (ch. 130)
- III. Falco has a weird dream about flying
- IV. Annie and kids split from the group and go on a boat
- V. Falco tells Annie about the dream. He states it’s a memory from a past Beast titan shifter – clearly not from Monke, because monkeys can’t fly, so it was someone before that. We already know that getting memories from shifters 2 or more generations ago is unusual. Not just that, but the memory looks suspiciously like Eren’s scenery above the clouds.
- VI. Falco becomes a bird and flies to the founder.
- Ch.136’s cliffhanger is Zeke stating “So Ymir ate you too” to Armin.
- Ymir’s body and soul were split into 9 titans after her death. Maybe getting them back together will make her “whole” again? She actually seems to be getting more corporeal – we see her appear before Ramzi (who is not an Eldian, so he is not seeing her through PATHS), and in ch.135 she casts a shadow (possibly a drawing mistake). As of ch.136 she would have access to either 2/9 titans (Beast and Colossal) or 5/9 if Eren also counts as “eaten” (+ Founder, Attack and Warhammer).
- That would also explain why she aligns herself with Eren and is continuing the Rumbling – it gives her a physical agent to act in the real world (Eren’s titan) and forces the remaining titan shifters to come after her.
So what’s the point of this in the story?? Is Ymir the final villain???
- Armin and Zeke are currently in PATHS and are clearly positioned for some kind of plot twist. People are already panicking and making wild assumptions about how Armin will TnJ Ymir or destroy PATHS. I think it’s more grounded than that. Zeke is a newfound PATHS expert, while Armin is in a unique position to figure out some twist about Eren and Ymir. Because Eren reached out to Armin back in ch.131, Armin knows what Eren is currently supposed to act like and may realize he is different from his ch.133 appearance. He also already figured out that Ymir is the one fighting them (while others like Connie think it’s Eren).
- It gives an additional conflict to the fight. If we take the text at face value, Eren knows his friends are coming to fight him, and he is ready to fight and kill them in return. We haven’t seen him come to this resolution, we skipped straight from him saying he wants them to live long lives in ch.130 to “come fight me bitches” in ch.133, to potentially killing Armin in ch.135. He is apparently not conflicted about this battle. The only conflict was on Alliance’s side (should they kill Eren?), and they already resolved to kill him. So the only conflict left is who will kill whom first, it’s just a physical battle. HOWEVER, if Eren isn’t actually awake and is not yet prepared to kill his friends, that would provide him with a delicious conflict once he wakes up: if he wants to complete the Rumbling, does he kill his loved ones? If he wants to end the power of the titans, should he allow Ymir to eat his beloved childhood friend Armin?
- There is already a FORESHADOWING for a specific plot point: Armin has to wake up Eren. Just like he woke him up in Trost and in Shiganshina. Ch.131 set up a sleeping Eren while having a “remember our dreams?” moment between Eren and Armin. It has to pay off. Eren is dreaming in the sky, and he needs to wake up and face reality. I wrote about it before
- It will give Ymir an actual character goal outside of being Eren’s magical support loli. It won’t make her a true final villain, as she is still just a girl who lived a horrible life and wants to escape her sandy prison realm. But Eren would have to make a choice.
submitted by SulkySpacebat to titanfolk [link] [comments]
Let's Talk About ch. 7! (A Birth of Tragedy)
it is one month late, i know. the grind for W and Rosa and Weedy to have each m3 and also the laziness to think of a strat really hit me in january. but in 3 days worth of time (sunday, tuesday, and wednesday) i completed all of the ch. 7!
not so proud tho, couldn't beat patriot myself......
so new chapter, new campaign, i did half of them, check mission to claim dailies and weeklies, there are 3 orange dots in each tab.
DAMN I FORGOT THERE ARE CAMPAIGN MISSION XD
so basically my team for the ch. 7 are my trust farm team, with the some of them in e2 (W, Rosa, Elysium, and Weedy), some core operators (mostly only bagpipe, and sometimes exu or saria joins in) and the rest of them in e1 lv 50 to max, basically what i got in WWE banner so that includes angelina and phantom. it's kinda a coincidence tho, i bought ange skin because her e2 is that bad eventho i didn't have her yet at the time, but WWE give me one, thanks lord RNG.
tbh now i've m6 my elysium, i kinda in torn to choose between him and myrtle and come to a conclusion. heavy sniper team go with elysium, rest is myrtle. that -2dp for snipers is no joke, W Rosa Exu feels much faster to deploy (not gonna do the math, i'll just enjoy this -2 dp satisfaction)
what i did in most of the stages up to 7-12 is placing my W and Rosa in a good positions, then put exu if needed or bring trust farm operator if don't, and then do weedy s2 + her robot + W mine in a lane, then rosa + bagpipe in another. basically those wiped out anything.
7-13 change me a bit. i thought at first "Rosa here Exu there + eyja here and the rest hold mid lane" will be enough, until i play 7-13 cm, no guards and snipers. it really changes my strat, i mean, i played the entire chapter with sniper heavy team and they said "no snipers?"?? cruel, so cruel. but amiya step up and kill those defenders and she gets her p6 in the end of this chapter so yeah she need to do some action.
7-14 was no problem, but 7-15? i feel so blessed playing its CM, i mean, defender got hp debuff for def and res buff? no problem, amiya s3 on top left and exu to snipe the heralds, while rosa and exu handles the other. Rosa s2m3 ftw for me tho, those +90% att and additional target sweeps too much defender in this chapter. while W's mine handle the mob that is lighter for Rosa talent to activate.
7-16? ahh 7-16, the "no more mr. nice guy" point, from here on i go all out with anything.
7-16 cm was the first where i lost my sanity in this chapter, and in this stage i just realized that the herald's buff stack with each other so the more they are in the field, the tougher the enemies. and in their lines there are defenders. so the solution was i kill the 2 defenders on the bottom with rosa asap, then retract her, and deploy exu and eyja to sweep the enemies goes there, then rosa redeploy in another position to kill the rest of defednder. but the 7 operator restrction is no joke, to kill the mortars only with bagpipe + elysium to prevent leak on the right side is a gamble, because if eyja and exu can't kill enough herald and they stack on the top left, there goes my in game sanity....
7-17 was okay, the s stages are no problem, h stages is also not a problem except h7-4. well i struggle a bit in h7-3 for the early stage because i tried to use siege but there's a leak because lack of dps to kill those hounds (e2lv70, s2m3) so i changed my strat where i pull myrtle asap, then put blaze on the far left lane. i'm surprised that ch'en could hold up the attack of the defenders, well they don't do much attack but i thought ch'en doesn't have a really great def. turns out i was wrong. ch'en to hold the defenders, silverash and rosa to clear them all.
now, the partiot's stages. 7-18 and h7-4, was kinda a nightmare until i know how to defeat it.
I DIDN'T KNOW THERE'S SUCH A MECHANIC WHERE YOU KILL PATRIOT BEFORE CERTAIN SPOT AND HOLD THE 18TH ENEMIES, THE ENEMIES WILL STOP SPAWNING!!!! i don't know if above mentioned is intentional or a bug, but after i run practice with my strat and the patriot will somehow goes through, and watched kyo's and eckogen's guide, it makes the stage much, much easier. i mean, all the mine will hit patriot and patriot only, no need for a ranged operator including healer because silverash and mines could kill patriot reborn alone. while cuora with s2 holding the 18th enemies near the spawn. it makes the stage much, much easier because i could focus on killing patriot first. the rest are mob that easy to kill without patriot's buff. damn who's the one found this mechanic? i'd love to buy him a beer..
and then h7-4. i try to finesse and think hard how to kill patriot + those defenders. turns out finesse isn't an answer. i watch kyo's guide, all 4 of his guide for h7-4, didn't really impress me so i didn't try it out. then i watch
25thnight's golden team guide, and all i have to do to clear this stage is to brute force them all? i thought there will be some hidden mechanic like 7-18 and hoping to find it but all i have to do is brute force them? i'm ashamed as a dokutah, maybe the first time in my AK life, i was thinking of some beautiful strategy but the beauty itself is in the force. but
this gameplay impress me much. i wonder if using thorns will make the strat much different but i am content with my silverash and W s3, i think as the reward W s3 will be m3 this week, she deseves more bombs XD
so yeah, that's my side of "start the month with ch.7". i have to beat patriot without a guide next time, he's a really tough to beat. i thought at first using rosa to bypass his def with amiya s3 help but turns out the answer comes back to silverash schwing schwing. i know you can do it with ifrit + eyja combo too but i'm kinda bored using eyja + ifrit and i rarely use silverash so i let daddy swing.
so how about your side of ch.7? anything surprises you? feel free to spoil me the story tho i haven't read them all. and it's already maintenance so it is the perfect time to post this XD
P.S:
i'm excited for CC, still blind on perma map so far but i got a tip to use liskarm s1m3 and weedy s3m3, and i won't let that rainbow film get away again!!!
oh and for those who haven't started ch.7, just do it. some of the best farming stages so far is in ch.7 *look at 7-10
View Poll submitted by novian14 to arknights [link] [comments]
Final DD piece for ROTH soon to be on Seeking Alpha
| PureCycle: The Overlooked Green Play Summary - Polypropylene (“PP”) plastic has a $98 billion global market spread across a wide range of industries and products of which <1% of that market is derived from recycled material.
- PureCycle is a technology leader in recycling PP, it possesses a patented and proven purification process that produces nearly virgin-quality resin from plastics.
- Strong pushes from both consumers and regulatory bodies to move towards the use of recycled plastic make for a great opportunity in an untapped market.
- Despite strong market demand, PureCycle is the only player in the game with both the technology and cost competitiveness to supply recycled PP. As a result, it has already been approached with overwhelming interest from corporations.
- To play their parts in the drive for “Going Green” many corporations are targeting high rates of recycled content in PP products for the future. PureCycle’s global commercial partners to date include L’Oreal, Procter & Gamble, Total, and BMW, as well as several high-quality investors.
- There is a tremendous risk/reward opportunity at current prices, with revenue and EBITDA achieving hyper growth as plants come online with attractive economics, margins, and high ROIC. Assuming 30x EBITDA, TP YE’25 is $237 with shares trading at $19.00 today.
The Play There is an increasingly big push from both environmentally-conscious consumers and governmental regulation to solve the building global plastic problem. As the Democrats assume power in Washington a push for environmental policy is expected, and single use plastic being banned in several states is just one example of the regulation to be expected for the future. Most investors are focused on green energy and consumer technology, while waste management and recyclables go overlooked. PureCycle is a revolutionary technology company focused on transforming waste PP into virgin-like resin. The same story that is driving enthusiasm for Enphase, Sunrun, and Tesla can be applied and seen for PureCycle Technologies. This is a massive global market for its taking, as no other companies or technologies can efficiently address PP recycling at scale. PureCycle holds the exclusive license to its patented solvent-based purification recycling technology, with the ability to commercialize it and bring recycled PP to market. With a disruptive technology, strong moat around the process, and tremendous demand given the consumer and regulatory environment, this creates an extremely exciting opportunity. The SPAC Deal PureCycle has struck a deal with ROTH CH Acquisition I that is expected to be finalized by the end of Q1 2021. PureCycle is to be acquired by ROTH CH Acquisition I with $76.5 million in trust. The deal is valuing the post-merger company at a $1.2 pro forma market capitalization and a $826 million Enterprise Value. The Enterprise Value is from the 118.3 million shares of ROCH capital sold at $10 plus the $310 million in debt that PureCycle raised by selling municipal bonds and $60 million in convertible notes minus the $667 million in cash that PureCycle will receive from the selling the shares. PureCycle plans on using the cash to finish Plant 1 and begin construction in Europe on Plant 2. The Market PP is used across a wide range of industries, including consumer packaged goods, electronics, automotive, building and construction, and agriculture. At the moment you see virgin PP in plastic containers, potato chip bags, razors, as well as food grade applications. The recycled PP at the moment can only be used for dark plastic applications such as trash cans, rugs, and plastic furniture due to the greying color and unpleasant odors that still remain. https://preview.redd.it/s52e3uj1spf61.png?width=580&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee074dc3208329f4fdeb8805b1d12246de1d37b9 The annual global demand of PP is roughly 173 billion pounds selling at approximately $0.57 a pound landing the total addressable market at ~$98 billion. The PP market has grown at an average of 4% a year for the past 5 years and is expected to continue to climb at similar rates in the coming years. As of 2020, due to polypropylene being extremely difficult to recycle, less than 1% (.8%) of all purchased PP is recycled. The demand potential for high quality recyclable PP, technology moat, and large time and cost barrier to entry positions PureCycle in a very strong place to start to meet the demand and create a recycle loop that the market is desiring. An increasing number of companies are now setting sustainability mandates to act as a key differentiator. L’Oreal is targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2025, moving to 100% by 2030, while Procter & Gamble is targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2030. In a $98bn market, broad sustainability goals targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2025 represents a $49bn opportunity in the next five years. The demand side of this equation can be satisfied by PureCycle’s world-first recycling process, as it produces high quality resin without compromising appearance, purity or performance. PureCycle’s product quality has been tested and validated by Procter & Gamble, large contractual customers, and third-party engineering specialists. PureCycle is the only player able to capitalize on this tremendous demand opportunity and has already pre-sold 4x their existing capacity – all without a sales force. This technology can close the recycling loop for PP and be delivered in a cost-effective way. Proprietary Technology with Tremendous Pricing Upside PureCycle developed a physical separation process that utilizes a specialized solvent based purification process. All unit operations are well-known and commercially available at scales much larger than required by PureCycle and involves process operating conditions comparable to current polyolefin production conditions. This includes standard equipment like a Scheibel Extraction Column, a Decanter, Settler and Solid Extraction, candle filters, adsorption filters. This is important because it means the equipment is readily available and at the size that would be needed to scale the operations. The unique aspect here is what goes into the process, the filters/solvent used, temperature and pressure maintenance etc. This process also only consumes 1/7th the energy and is more cost efficient than producing virgin polypropylene. PureCycle can essentially recycle anything that has high PP content and create virgin quality resin. https://preview.redd.it/y5zx14szrpf61.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=6eb9dd9f396306d54457b9ae47d7db74080fbd95 The attractive pricing upside is easily found in the market, with rates of virgin PP selling at ~$0.57 / lb and recycled PP costing between $1.00 to $2.00 / lb. With regulation and consumer demand driving businesses to buy recycled PP and PureCycle having a much higher quality product produced at a lower cost to other recycled PP, it is safe to say there is a lot of pricing upside potential. Unit Economics Plant 1, which is being built now in Ironton, OH, will be PureCycle’s least efficient plant with modeled price / lb of $0.90 and EBITDA / lb of $0.45. Plant 2 will be a more efficient plant with improved unit economics of $0.55 / lb. The forecasted business is to include 5 plant clusters, that are much more efficient, with 825m pounds a year in capacity. The clusters give competitive advantage by leveraging the same infrastructure and reduced capex. PureCycle’s model was structured around a municipal bond that they raised, negotiated at 14 cents a pound for feedstock. However, owners of plastic waste are generally charged cost to get rid of it, which gives PureCycle a great opportunity to leverage the system to capture pricing at a much cheaper price point. The FCF and EBTIDA margin they are able to generate is extremely attractive at 58% and 56% even at the $1.00 price / lb. PureCycle’s growth strategy targets over $800 million in revenue with EBITDA margins in excess of 50% by 2024. The current business plan has PureCycle building ~ 1 billion in capacity over the coming 3-4 years and at $1 a pound results in $1b of revenue. At a 50% EBTIDA margin, PureCycle will do 500m in EBTIDA. All of this results in extremely attractive top line math, unit economics into margin profile, and return on invested capital. Additionally, the funding on these facilities can get 80% debt for the project level capex. Competition? Other approaches to plastic recycling have existed in the market for decades, but they are limited in application, not cost competitive, and have failed to gain any meaningful traction as a result. Chemical recycling does not yield contaminant-free resin – limiting its potential food grade applications – and also has high energy costs. Mechanical recycling only works in limited use cases – not with any discolored feedstock, as the output becomes gray – and the product generally smells and looks unprofessional with melt flow index issues. PureCycle owns the only process that can take any feedstock and produce resin at a comparable virgin quality to virgin plastic -- usable for food-grade consumption. PureCycle also has a solid margin profile, as they are able to produce the product at 1/7th the energy cost of virgin. https://preview.redd.it/cze4lxo9spf61.png?width=359&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e6918db50bfeb7dc22ca57fb8ac06c1746d0d43 The Bears Case Some investors are worried about the fact that Procter and Gamble are the true owners of the patents that created the technology and PureCycle is only leasing them. The concern is that for some reason P&G licensed out the technology to other players. P&G decided to invest and develop the technology to solve a problem that they had with desiring to make their packaging from recyclable products. They decided that they did not have the commercial ability to bring it to market and made more sense to find a 3rd party to scale the business and PureCycle was chosen. The lead scientists and people from P&G are still working with PureCycle in more of a partnership than simply licensing the technology out. P&G is still very heavily invested and desires to see the success and scaling of PureCycle for its own benefits and goals and has agreed to be on the line to personally protect the patents for PureCycle as part of the deal. The current deal with PureCycle is an agreement to perpetuity, which should ease any hesitations by investors. No one else will be licensing this process/technology for the duration of the patents and Purecycle has developed a lot of their own patents as part of the commercialization efforts. Another case against the buy is the fact that it is a SPAC deal between Roth and PureCycle and there is increased risk. This is in fact true, but the reality is the deal has already been announced and is simply waiting for the SEC to sign off. To date the SEC has not stopped an announced merger from closing for regulatory reasons and there is no reason to believe this deal should be any different. Roth is excited about the partnership as they view the business as a slam dunk opportunity. Guaranteed Revenue and LOI’s Major global commercial customers including L’Oreal, Procter & Gamble, Ravago and Total have already signed agreements committing to purchasing hundreds of millions of pounds a year. These contracts have already guaranteed 4 years of maximum output from PureCycle’s Plant 1. Many other major retailers have written LOI’s and are potential to fund and drive the growth of other facilities and plants. PureCycle has a deal with Nestle who has a goal and company commitment to seeing that 100% of its packaging is 100% recycled by 2025. I believe that for investors, PureCycle having deals with blue chip companies for long durations significantly de-risks any danger to revenue projections. Forecasting Valuation https://preview.redd.it/siqwt4wvrpf61.png?width=667&format=png&auto=webp&s=210bd6435ebd54b984e60b8945bbe57f69f5bcc6 From a valuation perspective, by looking at the landscape, environmental services companies, waste managers of the world trade at ~10x – 18x EBITDA. This includes players like Advanced Disposal, Republic Services, Waste Management. The process technology players such as Albemarle, Amyris, Trex, Rogers Corporation get a larger premium, trading at a ~20x – 25x EBITDA. For the players with high growth, high margin potential and in ESG, the multiple starts to jump up quite significantly to ~30x+ EBITDA, companies such as Enphase, Solaredge, Array, Plug Power, Ballard Power etc. https://preview.redd.it/8balzzyurpf61.png?width=999&format=png&auto=webp&s=13313e6e38cb6c6b8e2bd425d4f63beb9e1e3b87 Although there are no direct comps to PureCycle as the technology is one of a kind, I looked at Danimer Scientific (DNMR) who also recently completed a SPAC deal. Both companies have been formed from P&G developed patents to address the plastic problem that the environment faces. Danimer did purchase the patents outright but have owned them for close to 10 years and are still working to get the business going. Based on side-by-side comparisons of both companies self-projected business you can clearly see that PureCycle is trading at a significant discount. Conclusion PureCycle (ROCH), with high value add and a unique offering, high margins, high expected growth, a proprietary process, large addressable market, and ESG is trading at an extremely attractive price point at 3.8x EBITDA. There is significant potential for rapid multiple expansion as their development plan is successfully executed. This is a hyper growth story in revenue/EBITDA as plants come online with attractive economics. Financial projections show ~60% gross margin on the products and a ~30% ROIC for future plants at scale. The return profile here is extremely lucrative even with the pre-revenue valuation. Assuming 30x EBITDA, TP here is $237 by YE’25 with shares are trading at $19 today. submitted by AlphainvestR to SPACs [link] [comments] |
Friday, 5 February 2021
Friday, 5 February 2020
Live Updates
Background Information: https://www.reddit.com/WallStreetTradewiki
At Close of Thursday
Batch 1: - CLX Clorox Co 191.65
- APD Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. 256.7
- CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp 74.69
- CI Cigna Corp 205.38
- IP International Paper Co 46.75
- QRVO Qorvo Inc 167.69
- QCOM QUALCOMM, Inc. 147.97
- ALB Albemarle Corporation 154.9
- DD DuPont de Nemours Inc 73.1
- GME GameStop Corp. 53.5 (Hype Stock)
Maybe:
- ARG Argos Resources Ltd 3
- SPCE Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc 54.72
- INO Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc 12.6
- SDC SmileDirectClub Inc 12.9
Batch 2: Company | Current Price | Average Price
- W W Grainger Inc GWW 372 Call 389.68
- Pfizer Inc. PFE 34.89 Call 36.89
- Progressive Corp PGR 88.14 Call 93.28
- Cisadane Sawit Raya PT CSRA 304 Call 346.7
- Air Transport Services Group Inc. ATSG 26.32 Call 27.74
- CH Robinson Worldwide Inc CHRW 87.31 Potential Call 95.93
- FedEx Corporation FDX 248.12 Potential Call 250.77
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX 213.71 Potential Call 234.45
- Brown-Forman Corporation Class B BF.B 73.68 Potential Call 75.01
- Copart, Inc. CPRT 114.33 Potential Call 116.53
- Republic Services, Inc. RSG 92.04 Potential Call 94.48
- Waste Management, Inc. WM 113.08 Potential Call 115.58
- Atmos Energy Corporation ATO 88.78 Potential Call 90.48
- Dollar General Corp. DG 195.72 Potential Call 209.36
- Edwards Lifesciences Corp EW 85.43 Potential Call 87.61
- Davita Inc DVA 109.54 Potential Call 120.63
- Church & Dwight Co., Inc. CHD 82.16 Potential Call 86.17
- Fortive Corp FTV 66.08 Potential Call 69.79
- Xylem Inc XYL 97.17 Potential Call 103.54
- Verizon Communications Inc. VZ 55.14 Maybe Call 57.09
- IBM Common Stock IBM 121.02 Potential Call 126.06
- Leidos Holdings Inc LDOS 107.27 Maybe Call 108.95
- Ameren Corp AEE 73.93 Potential Call 74.77
- Kellogg Company K 57.87 Potential Call 60.14
- McCormick & Company, Incorporated MKC 88.88 Potential Call 93.66
- Procter & Gamble Co PG 129.03 Potential Call 134.4
- Merck & Co., Inc. MRK 76.03 Potential Call 81.84
- Perrigo Company PLC PRGO 43.57 Potential Call 44.72
- Verisk Analytics, Inc. VRSK 188.39 Potential Call 193.89
- Domino's Pizza, Inc. DPZ 373 Potential Call 383.24
- Coca-Cola Co KO 49.01 Potential Call 49.55
At Open of Friday
Batch 1: - CBOE Cboe Global Markets Inc 91.98
- DD DuPont de Nemours Inc 73.1
- BILI Bilibili Inc - ADR 136.51
- PTON Peloton Interactive Inc 145.96
Maybe:
- UNM Unum Group 23.7
- WCG Webcentral Group Ltd 0.56
- GGP Greatland Gold plc 25.5
- ARG Argos Resources Ltd 2.8
- GPRO GoPro Inc 8.84 (Nothing happened with this company in a long time)
- QS Quantumscape Corp 45.38 (Sued)
Batch 2: Company | Current Price | Average Price
Call
- Church & Dwight Co., Inc. CHD 82.57 Call 86.03
- Pfizer Inc. PFE 34.94 Call 36.78
- Quantumscape Corp QS 45.32 Call 52.71
Potential
- Air Transport Services Group Inc. ATSG 26.97 Maybe Call 27.54
- Greatland Gold plc GGP 25.75 Maybe Call 31.18
- Domino's Pizza, Inc. DPZ 376.67 Maybe Call 382.57
- Kellogg Company K 58.1 Maybe Call 59.97
- McCormick & Company, Incorporated MKC 89.22 Maybe Call 93.39
- International Paper Co IP 47 Maybe Call 51.54
- Procter & Gamble Co PG 129.38 Maybe Call 133.83
- Merck & Co., Inc. MRK 76.91 Maybe Call 81.46
- Progressive Corp PGR 88.75 Maybe Call 92.91
- Anthem Inc ANTM 294.69 Maybe Call 319.92
- UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH 330.23 Maybe Call 350.99
- Clorox Co CLX 192.11 Maybe Call 206.33
- Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. APD 255.25 Maybe Call 282.78
- Fortive Corp FTV 68.93 Maybe Call 69.47
- Verizon Communications Inc. VZ 55.4 Maybe Call 56.91
- WEC Energy Group Inc WEC 87.72 Maybe Call 89.12
- Dollar General Corp. DG 198.6 Maybe Call 208.23
- Newmont Corporation NEM 58.14 Maybe Call 62.15
- Davita Inc DVA 110.43 Maybe Call 119.99
- CH Robinson Worldwide Inc CHRW 87.87 Maybe Call 95.49
Donation Link: I have created a donation link (as many of you guys requested that I do) just as an addition to help support and motivate me to continue. After donating please DM me so I can flair you and add you to the leaderboard.
www.paypal.me/WallStreetTrader
Update: Will update close it in an hour of this post.
Suggest tickers, I will add them to the database.
Open Added Approximately 30 minutes after open.
I will make a newsletter or website, and keep you guys updated with my stocks as well. While giving you output data which I receive. Without missing out on any stocks and referencing all stocks (even stocks which the bot says no to). Though I "may" charge something but provide extra data, but saying that I will
not stop posting on here.
I'm too tired, practically asleep typing this.
Mannnn the batch 2 algorithm basically predicts the future, and I feel like the ARK Group follows batch 1.
Love all your comments I'm almost asleep replying, my life is stocks but I'm drained today.
submitted by DumplingGoddessTe to WallStreetTrader [link] [comments]
Monday, 1 February 2020
Monday, 1 February 2020
Live Updates First Post: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kuwg1e/i_have_a_discount_trading_bot_which_gives_out/ Background: - My discount bot to help /wallstreetbets. It took me almost a year to develop it to my standard.
- My private codes was used to develop it, and it's very unlikely I will sell it off to anyone or publish the code freely as it took me way too long to develop it. I rather post updates freely, at no cost to anyone than give out the code.
- I will not be posting this hourly. It just too long to load everything up maybe in the future. I will post during open though.
- Discord and telegram admins, don't try to monetize my bot suggestions to vulnerable people, when you don't even own the codes behind it.
- There are a lot of SPY500/"boomer" companies within the bot, I thought about removing it but many people preferred that I kept it in there.
- There won't be any sell signals, as stocks only go up, so I rather just do a discount algorithm.
- Batch 1 = Algorithm/Bot + Human Judgement
- Batch 2 = Algorithm/Bot Judgement Only
- This is a one man bot.
Bot Overview:
It's showing an opportunity that you may have missed otherwise, so you can decide for yourself if you want to pursue the discount of a stock for potential profits. Backtesting has not been done, do not YOLO your life savings into whatever stated risking it all. Rather use this as a side tool.
Key: - Pharma companies are very risky.
- Meme/Hype stocks are very risky.
- Companies that you don't know how they work are very risky.
- Follower companies are very risky because they join the hype train (what NKLA is to TSLA).
- I have a very low amount in options (less than $500), and I have 100k+ in shares and cash.
- When doing options have a lot of collateral, so you don't hit margin call.
- Take the "Calls" as very discounted, and "Potentially A Call" as somewhat discounted.
- Old money companies are slow. While tech companies are fast-paced.
- Only invest in companies that you do know and see potential in.
- You don't have to invest every day, only when you see the potential.
At Close of Friday
Batch 1: - Air Freight & Logistics CHRW CH Robinson Worldwide Inc 85.56
- Air Freight & Logistics CHRW CH Robinson Worldwide Inc 85.56
- Air Freight & Logistics FDX FedEx Corporation 235.34
- Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods PVH PVH Corp 85.26
- Automobile Manufacturers TSLA Tesla Inc 793.53
- Building Products ALLE Allegion PLC 107.01
- Cable & Satellite CHTR Charter Communications Inc 607.56
- Computer & Electronics Retail BBY Best Buy Co Inc 108.82
- Construction & Engineering J Jacobs Engineering Group Inc 100.96
- Data Processing & Outsourced Services FLT FleetCor Technologies, Inc. 242.75
- Data Processing & Outsourced Services GPN Global Payments Inc 176.52
- Health Care Equipment RMD ResMed Inc. 201.57
- Health Care Equipment SYK Stryker Corporation 221.01
- Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines MAR Marriott International Inc 116.31
- Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd 65
- Household Appliances WHR Whirlpool Corporation 185.09
- Industrial Conglomerates ROP Roper Technologies Inc 392.91
- Industrial Gases APD Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. 266.76
- Industrial Machinery SWK Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. 173.49
- Integrated Oil & Gas CVX Chevron Corporation 85.2
- Internet & Direct Marketing Retail BKNG Booking Holdings Inc 1944.33
- IT Consulting & Other Services IT Gartner Inc 151.91
- Life & Health Insurance PFG Principal Financial Group Inc 49.27
- Multi-line Insurance LNC Lincoln National Corporation 45.49
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production FANG Diamondback Energy Inc 56.69
- Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing PSX Phillips 66 67.8
- Personal Products EL Estee Lauder Companies Inc 236.65
- Regional Banks MTB M&T Bank Corporation 132.47
- Regional Banks SIVB SVB Financial Group 437.78
- Retail REITs SPG Simon Property Group Inc 92.93
- Semiconductor Equipment AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. 96.68
- Semiconductor Equipment ENPH Enphase Energy Inc 182.35
- Semiconductor Equipment KLAC KLA Corp 280.07
- Semiconductor Equipment LRCX Lam Research Corporation 483.95
- Semiconductor Equipment TER Teradyne, Inc. 113.48
- Specialty Chemicals ECL Ecolab Inc. 204.51
- Specialty Chemicals PPG PPG Industries, Inc. 134.71
- Specialty Stores GPC Genuine Parts Company 93.88
- Specialty Stores TSCO Tractor Supply Company 141.74
- AYI Acuity Brands, Inc. 120.24
- ADS Alliance Data Systems Corporation 67.65
- MAC Macerich Co 15.7
- HRS L3Harris Technologies Inc 141
- ROKU Roku Inc 389.03
- BILI Bilibili Inc - ADR 113.89
- NRGU MicroSectors U S Big Oil Index 3X Leveraged ETN 66
- GUSH Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp & Prod Bl 2X Shs 45.38
- SPOT Spotify Technology SA 315
- TQQQ ProShares UltraPro QQQ 90.47
- DIG ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas 78.07
- BEAM Beam Therapeutics Inc 96.43
Maybe: - Not updating all, too many
- Advertising OMC Omnicom Group Inc. 62.38
- Aerospace & Defense TXT Textron Inc. 45.26
- Airlines ALK Alaska Air Group, Inc. 48.83
- Airlines AAL American Airlines Group Inc 17.17
- Airlines DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. 37.96
- Airlines UAL United Airlines Holdings Inc 39.99
- Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods VFC VF Corp 76.87
- Brewers TAP Molson Coors Beverage Co Class B 50.16
- Building Products AOS A. O. Smith Corp 54.3
Batch 2: Company | Current Price | Average Price
Call:
- Alcoa Corp AA 18.00 23.01
- Air Transport Services Group Inc. ATSG 25.41 28.50
- Quantumscape Corp QS 43.75 56.92
- Greatland Gold plc GGP 24.50 33.01
- Everest Re Group Ltd RE 211.08 234.30
- Verisk Analytics, Inc. VRSK 183.50 196.64
- AutoZone, Inc. AZO 1118.37 1231.46
- Nucor Corporation NUE 48.73 55.65
- Progressive Corp PGR 87.19 94.93
- Dover Corp DOV 116.49 126.72
- W W Grainger Inc GWW 364.39 394.34
- Verizon Communications Inc. VZ 54.75 57.75
- Dollar General Corp. DG 194.61 211.83
- Stryker Corporation SYK 221.01 242.10
- Fastenal Company FAST 45.59 49.64
- Las Vegas Sands Corp. LVS 48.09 55.87
- Jacobs Engineering Group Inc J 100.96 111.74
- FleetCor Technologies, Inc. FLT 242.75 269.57
- Copart, Inc. CPRT 109.75 118.12
- L3Harris Technologies Inc LHX 171.51 185.65
- Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT 321.82 344.99
- CH Robinson Worldwide Inc CHRW 85.56 96.97
- FedEx Corporation FDX 235.34 253.11
- United Parcel Service, Inc. UPS 155.00 162.25
- Paycom Software Inc PAYC 379.74 418.54
Potential Call: Didn't add all - Penn Virginia Corporation PVAC 10.04 12.37
- Vale SA VALE 16.15 17.92
- Nintendo 8 ADR Representing Ord Shs NTDOY 72.27 78.35
- LYFT Inc LYFT 44.46 48.99
- Shopify Inc SHOP 1098.59 1183.03
- Carnival plc CUK 16.00 17.83
- Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc. AAWW 51.82 54.59
- J B Hunt Transport Services Inc JBHT 134.66 147.56
- Arconic Corp (PITTSBURGH) ARNC 25.20 29.36
- Coty Inc COTY 6.37 7.07
- Nuformix PLC NFX 2.35 2.77
- Ecolab Inc. ECL 204.51 218.61
- LyondellBasell Industries NV LYB 85.76 94.81
- PPG Industries, Inc. PPG 134.71 146.92
- Genuine Parts Company GPC 93.88 103.02
- O'Reilly Automotive Inc ORLY 425.47 468.02
- Tractor Supply Company TSCO 141.74 153.20
- Xilinx, Inc. XLNX 130.57 145.01
- Coca-Cola Co KO 48.15 50.19
- Weyerhaeuser Co WY 31.19 33.41
- Celanese Corporation CE 122.15 133.88
- Domino's Pizza, Inc. DPZ 370.76 383.90
- Starbucks Corporation SBUX 96.81 104.03
- Lam Research Corporation LRCX 483.95 541.75
- Teradyne, Inc. TER 113.48 134.44
- Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD 85.64 93.65
- Kinder Morgan Inc KMI 14.08 15.13
- McCormick & Company, Incorporated MKC 89.54 94.43
- Sealed Air Corp SEE 42.27 45.60
- Westrock Co WRK 41.43 45.76
- Estee Lauder Companies Inc EL 236.65 255.40
- Procter & Gamble Co PG 128.21 135.99
- Merck & Co., Inc. MRK 77.07 82.41
- Pfizer Inc. PFE 35.90 37.12
- Zoetis Inc ZTS 154.25 164.70
- Chubb Ltd CB 145.67 154.77
- W. R. Berkley Corp WRB 62.14 66.39
- CSX Corporation CSX 85.76 92.19
- Union Pacific Corporation UNP 197.47 212.63
- Expedia Group Inc EXPE 124.10 140.28
- Verisign, Inc. VRSN 194.07 201.01
- Charles Schwab Corporation Common Stock SCHW 51.54 58.05
- Morgan Stanley MS 67.05 74.35
- Accenture Plc ACN 241.92 258.57
- Gartner Inc IT 151.91 163.00
- IBM Common Stock IBM 119.11 127.26
- Anthem Inc ANTM 296.98 325.38
- Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. LYV 66.45 73.46
- Lincoln National Corporation LNC 45.49 51.56
- Pinnacle West Capital Corporation PNW 75.25 78.45
- Baker Hughes Co BKR 20.09 22.49
- Halliburton Company HAL 17.63 20.40
- Nov Inc NOV 12.38 14.44
- DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc XRAY 53.49 58.07
- Leggett & Platt, Inc. LEG 41.00 44.31
- Carnival Corp CCL 18.67 20.66
- Marriott International Inc MAR 116.31 127.13
- Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL 65.00 73.09
- Costco Wholesale Corporation COST 352.43 367.41
- Roper Technologies Inc ROP 392.91 426.25
- Linde PLC LIN 245.40 262.36
- Fortive Corp FTV 66.08 70.37
- IDEX Corporation IEX 186.19 200.39
- Illinois Tool Works Inc. ITW 194.21 206.23
- Ingersoll Rand Inc IR 41.84 45.97
- Xylem Inc XYL 96.59 104.28
- Arthur J Gallagher & Co AJG 115.41 119.65
- Chevron Corporation CVX 85.20 92.02
At Open of Monday
Batch 1: - Specialty Chemicals DD DuPont de Nemours Inc 75.81
- GME GameStop Corp. 301.87 (Hype/Meme Stock)
Maybe: - Alternative Carriers LUMN Centurylink Inc 11.96
- GGP Greatland Gold plc 22.45
- RIG Transocean LTD 3.26
- FOSL Fossil Group Inc 13.35
- ARG Argos Resources Ltd 3.25
- NRGU MicroSectors U S Big Oil Index 3X Leveraged ETN 63.83
- QS Quantumscape Corp 41.99
Batch 2: Company | Current Price | Average Price
Call:
- Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT 322.98 344.99
- United Parcel Service, Inc. UPS 155.85 162.25
- Las Vegas Sands Corp. LVS 49.14 55.87
- Dollar General Corp. DG 194.18 211.83
- Dover Corp DOV 116.55 126.72
- W W Grainger Inc GWW 368.86 394.34
- Verizon Communications Inc. VZ 54.50 57.75
- Progressive Corp PGR 86.33 94.93
- Everest Re Group Ltd RE 211.70 234.30
- Verisk Analytics, Inc. VRSK 184.92 196.64
- AutoZone, Inc. AZO 1155.00 1231.46
- Greatland Gold plc GGP 22.16 33.01
- Quantumscape Corp QS 41.70 56.92
- Air Transport Services Group Inc. ATSG 25.57 28.50
- Alcoa Corp AA 18.15 23.01
Potential Call: - Boeing Co BA 194.32 209.38
- Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM 24.72 27.54
- Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc HII 157.96 170.19
- Southwest Airlines Co LUV 44.69 47.41
- TJX Companies Inc TJX 63.79 68.24
- VF Corp VFC 77.25 85.79
- Bank of New York Mellon Corp BK 40.19 43.96
- Northern Trust Corporation NTRS 90.22 96.43
- Baxter International Inc BAX 76.58 80.99
- Edwards Lifesciences Corp EW 82.55 88.50
- ResMed Inc. RMD 199.32 218.20
- Universal Health Services, Inc. Class B UHS 125.63 135.08
- Ventas, Inc. VTR 46.32 48.45
- DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc XRAY 53.55 58.07
- Leggett & Platt, Inc. LEG 41.04 44.31
- Carnival Corp CCL 18.50 20.66
- Marriott International Inc MAR 117.70 127.13
- Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL 65.64 73.09
- Costco Wholesale Corporation COST 350.70 367.41
- Roper Technologies Inc ROP 397.68 426.25
- Fortive Corp FTV 66.68 70.37
- IDEX Corporation IEX 187.94 200.39
- Illinois Tool Works Inc. ITW 194.51 206.23
- Ingersoll Rand Inc IR 42.07 45.97
- Xylem Inc XYL 96.25 104.28
- Arthur J Gallagher & Co AJG 116.03 119.65
- Chevron Corporation CVX 85.05 92.02
- W. R. Berkley Corp WRB 62.78 66.39
- Xilinx, Inc. XLNX 131.23 145.01
- PPG Industries, Inc. PPG 136.27 146.92
- J B Hunt Transport Services Inc JBHT 136.12 147.56
- Arconic Corp (PITTSBURGH) ARNC 25.00 29.36
- Coty Inc COTY 6.32 7.07
- Nuformix PLC NFX 2.46 2.77
- Penn Virginia Corporation PVAC 10.21 12.37
- Vale SA VALE 16.29 17.92
Donation Link: I have created a donation link (as many of you guys requested that I do) just as an addition to help support and motivate me to continue. After donating please DM me so I can flair you and add you to the leaderboard.
www.paypal.me/WallStreetTrader
Leaderboard: $76.32
Cicaatrix (22 Jan)
$50 Anonymous - DM To Claim (28 Jan)
$26.17
twinkjelly (30 Jan)
Update: Will update close it in an hour of this post.
Suggest tickers, I will add them to the database.
I will aim to do it earlier.
I'm not updating Maybe today, because it's been consistent red days and my list is getting too long. I might make a downloadable version in the future.
Edit: I half updated it. Batch 1 Close: 3:49 am Sunday, 31 January 2021 (GMT-5) Time in New York, NY, USA
Batch 2 Close: 4:09 am Sunday, 31 January 2021 (GMT-5) Time in New York, NY, USA
Adding Open
Batch 1 Open 10:02 am Monday, 1 February 2021 (GMT-5) Time in New York, NY, USA
Batch 2 Open 10:06 am Monday, 1 February 2021 (GMT-5) Time in New York, NY, USA
submitted by DumplingGoddessTe to WallStreetTrader [link] [comments]
Thursday, 4 February 2020
Thursday, 4 February 2020
Live Updates
Background Information: https://www.reddit.com/WallStreetTradewiki
At Close of Wednesday
Batch 1: - BIIB Biogen Inc 263.25
- PKI PerkinElmer, Inc. 139.72
- STE Steris PLC 182.87
- SBAC SBA Communications Corporation 272.12
- ALB Albemarle Corporation 161.88
- DD DuPont de Nemours Inc 73.1
- SPOT Spotify Technology SA 317.25
- NTLA Intellia Therapeutics Inc 66.6
Maybe:
- ANR Anatara Lifesciences Ltd 0.19
- NFX Nuformix PLC 2.6
- ARG Argos Resources Ltd 3
- TSO Tesoro Resources Ltd 0.26
- INO Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc 14.56
- HYLN Hyliion Holdings Corp 16.13
Batch 2: Company | Current Price | Average Price
- Verizon Communications Inc. VZ 54.79 Call 57.34
- Pfizer Inc. PFE 34.84 Call 37
- Progressive Corp PGR 86.96 Call 93.91
- Cisadane Sawit Raya PT CSRA 298 Call 351.7
- Quantumscape Corp QS 46.82 Call 55.18
- CH Robinson Worldwide Inc CHRW 86.93 Potential Call 96.35
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX 211 Potential Call 234.89
- Baxter International Inc BAX 77.29 Potential Call 80.62
- Davita Inc DVA 110.49 Potential Call 121.13
- Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd NCLH 23.61 Potential Call 24.94
- Church & Dwight Co., Inc. CHD 83.01 Potential Call 86.33
- Fortive Corp FTV 66.25 Potential Call 70.03
- Xylem Inc XYL 95.12 Potential Call 103.93
- Humana Inc HUM 379.93 Potential Call 415.82
- Baker Hughes Co BKR 21.4 Potential Call 22.39
- Kinder Morgan Inc KMI 14.24 Potential Call 15.16
- McCormick & Company, Incorporated MKC 88.72 Potential Call 93.94
- Amcor PLC AMCR 11.01 Potential Call 11.39
- Procter & Gamble Co PG 128.95 Potential Call 135.02
- Merck & Co., Inc. MRK 77.32 Maybe Call 82.08
- Perrigo Company PLC PRGO 42.61 Potential Call 44.86
- Philip Morris International Inc. PM 80.23 Potential Call 81.98
- Royal Dutch Shell plc ADR Class B RDS.B 34.84 Potential Call 37.76
- Air Transport Services Group Inc. ATSG 25.99 Potential Call 27.93
- BP plc BP 21.27 Potential Call 23.99
- Alcoa Corp AA 19.9 Potential Call 22.47
At Open of Thursday
Batch 1: - CLX Clorox Co 196.46
- APD Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. 249.04
- CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp 74.17
- BLL Ball Corporation 87.92
- QRVO Qorvo Inc 164.65
- QCOM QUALCOMM, Inc. 147.86
- ALB Albemarle Corporation 154.45
- DD DuPont de Nemours Inc 73.1
- GME GameStop Corp. 82.5 (Careful)
Maybe:
- VIAC CBS Corporation Common Stock 49.91
- CXO Core Lithium Ltd 0.31
- IP International Paper Co 47.86
- XRX Xerox Holdings Corp 22.64
- GGP Greatland Gold plc 27
- JOY Journey Energy Inc 0.35
- ARG Argos Resources Ltd 3
- TSO Tesoro Resources Ltd 0.26
- INO Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc 13.91
- SDC SmileDirectClub Inc 13.73
- SU Suncor Energy Inc. 16.81
Batch 2: Company | Current Price | Average Price
Call
- W W Grainger Inc GWW 369.87 Call 389.68
- Pfizer Inc. PFE 34.93 Call 36.89
- Progressive Corp PGR 87.5 Call 93.28
Potential
- CH Robinson Worldwide Inc CHRW 86.78 Potential Call 95.93
- FedEx Corporation FDX 244.03 Potential Call 250.77
- VF Corp VFC 80.67 Potential Call 84.65
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX 213.31 Potential Call 234.45
- Republic Services, Inc. RSG 92.14 Potential Call 94.48
- Atmos Energy Corporation ATO 88.15 Potential Call 90.48
- Dollar General Corp. DG 195.93 Potential Call 209.36
- Edwards Lifesciences Corp EW 85.42 Potential Call 87.61
- Davita Inc DVA 109.5 Potential Call 120.63
- Church & Dwight Co., Inc. CHD 81.93 Potential Call 86.17
- Fortive Corp FTV 66.3 Potential Call 69.79
- Verizon Communications Inc. VZ 55.13 Potential Call 57.09
- IBM Common Stock IBM 120.2 Potential Call 126.06
- Ameren Corp AEE 73.33 Potential Call 74.77
- Kellogg Company K 57.98 Potential Call 60.14
- McCormick & Company, Incorporated MKC 89.06 Potential Call 93.66
- Procter & Gamble Co PG 129.17 Potential Call 134.4
- Merck & Co., Inc. MRK 76.18 Potential Call 81.84
- Perrigo Company PLC PRGO 43.41 Potential Call 44.72
- Verisk Analytics, Inc. VRSK 188.98 Potential Call 193.89
- Domino's Pizza, Inc. DPZ 373.02 Potential Call 383.24
- Coca-Cola Co KO 48.86 Potential Call 49.55
Donation Link: I have created a donation link (as many of you guys requested that I do) just as an addition to help support and motivate me to continue. After donating please DM me so I can flair you and add you to the leaderboard.
www.paypal.me/WallStreetTrader
Update: Will update close it in an hour of this post.
Suggest tickers, I will add them to the database.
Open Added Approximately 30 minutes after open.
I will make a newsletter or website, and keep you guys updated with my stocks as well. While giving you output data which I receive. Without missing out on any stocks and referencing all stocks (even stocks which the bot says no to). Though I "may" charge something but provide extra data, but saying that I will
not stop posting on here.
submitted by DumplingGoddessTe to WallStreetTrader [link] [comments]
The nature of Clair and Shuichi's relationship before they head off toward the mountains (before Ch. 10)
Let's just say there are spoilers all the way until ch. 61. (Idk, better safe than sorry.)
So I do want to preface all of this by saying that I
completely ship Shuichi and Clair (of course). Now, whether that relationship is healthy or not or whatever... that's an entirely different discussion. But I definitely ship them. (By extension, Clair is also best girl btw.)
That said, I do have a few questions about the nature of their relationship in the first 10 chapters (which is before they head off to the mountains and meet Sanbe). I want to ask this to hear about other readers' (or watchers', I guess?) opinions about Clair's thoughts and motivations.
So this whole story begins when Clair was about to commit suicide because no one believed her about her claims that monsters existed.
I was finally ready to die, and then you got in the way... No one believed me... when I said that monsters were real. (Ch. 2)
So as a result, a monster saving her coincidentally right when she's about to die, she must think it's fate. Which makes sense, as this coincidence is far too... coincidental.
Our meeting must have been fate. (Ch. 2 again)
That said, I imagine it must be because he almost raped her. And also she doesn't really know him yet. So I'd believe that, at the moment, there's no real emotional connection between them at all. She sees him as just a tool and a means to help her find her sister. (Because now that the existence of monsters is confirmed, the next step is finding her sister who's also a monster.) This also explains why she was so comfortable initially testing Shuichi by kicking him off the school building, of course. If he dies, well, it's not like she's going to be very emotionally affected (as we've seen, she can be ruthless when necessary).
Later in chapter 5, she hears from Shuichi just how scared he is of transforming because of how much he doesn't know about it.
But even though you were so scared of transforming, you still saved me. So you're strong. Honestly, why you can transform, and what these coins have to do with everything, I haven't got a clue either. I can't guarantee that you won't die, and I can't even do anything about you feeling like crap. And most likely, whatever happens from here on out will be even worse. So I'll make you a promise. No matter what the reason... if something happens to you, I'll die with you. So if you die, you won't be alone. The two of us... will be two in one. (Ch. 5)
So she says that whole monologue to him in response. And then of course, we see Shuichi posing to her what if he wanted to die immediately, and then her jumping off, etc. This brings me to my
first two questions. Not a whole lot has occurred in the story so far to change their relationship dynamic or intimacy so far. Aside from killing Hikawa "together".
1) So why would have been so willing to die with Shuichi at this point in the story, at least according to her monologue?
2) And in response to his hypothetical question, why would she have risked jumping off?
To my
second question, I'm sure she was gambling and believed he would save her, but wouldn't that be an extreme risk given that she's gambling her life on a guy who's seemed rather unreliable so far? It just seems very out-of-character for her, who's been shown to base her actions on logic for the most part, at least until later. And to
both those questions, whether it's her monologue or her jump, her life's purpose is to find her sister. Isn't dying with Shuichi going to go against her raison d'être?
This is similarly seen when Elena tears off Shuichi's head.
I'm sorry, Shuichi... this wasn't supposed to happen... But, I'll keep my promise. Oh good... there's one bullet left. (Ch. 8)
Of course, neither of them dies here. But again, at this point he's believed to be dead. Like, his head's been separated from his body lol. So
question 3.
3) Why would she follow through with the promise and die with him? (Mmm... romantic as that may be.)
Because even at this point, there hasn't been a whole lot (imo) to justify her giving up her life's purpose just to die with this guy. Of course, all of this is
kind of addressed later after they visit the alien.
Things are going great for me. It's even better than before my sister killed our parents. Yeah... the worst was after she disappeared. No one would believe me if I told them what happened. I felt like I didn't belong anywhere... but then everything changed when I met you. My world started to move again. And... I found a place where I belonged. You're where I belong Shuichi. I mean, isn't this great!? There's an alien, and we can go around finding the coins. And my sister's involved with all this, too!! I've never been so excited in my whole life!! Don't worry, I'm not gonna use the coin. I've got you, after all."
So hmm. I suppose that at some point, their relationship changes. To give her this mindset. Was it when he confessed his fears in chapter 5? Or, maybe when she was so elated that he wasn't actually dead? I guess those are all my questions.
It makes sense now that she wouldn't want/need to use the coin for herself, because she still has Shuichi. (And now she has the explanation from the Alien. Before this, she wouldn't have known what to do with the coin.) From this point onward, yeah, I ship them even more together. But I suppose I want to hear anyone else's thoughts on how the relationship evolved in the first 10 chapters and, essentially, what is going on through Clair's head when she tl;dr wants to die with Shuichi.
It's also entirely possible I'm overthinking/overanalyzing this and the author just didn't think this deeply about it. Or I'm misunderstanding something. xd
submitted by Voyria to Gleipnir [link] [comments]
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning November 30th, 2020
Good Saturday morning to all of you here on
stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning November 30th, 2020.
Stocks on track to close out month of big gains as jobs data looms - (Source)
Stocks next week will come off one of their best months ever into a busy week of economic data and the ongoing tensions between the spreading virus and positive news on vaccines and treatments.
Another highlight of the week is expected to be Tuesday’s testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin before the Senate Banking Committee. They will be discussing the emergency measures taken to help the economy after the outbreak of the pandemic.
The Dow was up nearly 13% for November so far, and if it holds its gains into Monday’s close, it will chalk up its best month since January, 1987. The S&P 500 closed at a record 3,638 and was up 11.3% for the month. The gain is its best performance since April’s 12.7%, which was the third best month for the S&P 500 since its origin in 1957.
November was a big month also for market rotation, with investors favoring stocks that would benefit from a rebounding economy and showing less love for long-held favorites among big tech and internet names. Financials were up more than 17% in the past month, and industrials rose nearly 15%, as investors bet vaccines would help the economy return to normal next year.
Tech notched a single digit gain for the month so far and lagged the broader market. But some strategists expect big tech and internet names, stay-at-home stocks, to fare better in December.
“The death of big tech has been announced over and over again, and we see that the market doesn’t abandon them, but in fact migrates to big tech whenever there are concerns,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. “The post-pandemic question is whether big tech can co-exist with the small and mid-cap.” Small caps were one of the biggest winners in November, with the Russell 2000, up 20.6%.
“We did not see major selling in Nasdaq,” as investors put funds in cyclicals and value, she said. Nasdaq was up 11.9% for the month so far, slightly better than the S&P 500.
Experts have warned that there could an even bigger surge in virus cases, following the Thanksgiving holiday which could start to show up in the coming week. There have been more than 12.6 million cases in the U.S.
Jobs report
There are some important economic reports in the week ahead, the most important being Friday’s November employment report. There is is also ISM manufacturing data Tuesday.
“My thought here is the data is going to matter because if you listen to the Fed, and if you read through the Fed’s minutes, they’re in transition here. They’re becoming more concerned about the rise in Covid cases, certainly about the lack of fiscal support,” said Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates at AmeriVet Securities.
Strategists say another key report will be weekly jobless claims, which showed an increase in each of the last two weeks. “The employment data clearly has been weakening,” said Faranello. If it continues, it will keep a lid on Treasury yields, which move opposite prices.
Jefferies economist Tom Simons expects the elimination of Census Bureau workers to detract from the job gains in November, and he forecasts the economy added just 340,000 jobs.
“It is hard to envision a particularly strong report coming out on Friday,” noted Simons.
Bank of America economists forecast just 150,000 payrolls were added for November, compared to 638,000 in October. The private sector is expected to add 300,000, but expected government layoffs impacted total payrolls in their forecast.
Faranello said he expects the bond market to be much more active than normal this December because of the pending change in the White House, as well as the runoff election in Georgia Jan. 5 that will decide whether Republicans keep their Senate majority. The market has also been concerned about the lack of stimulus from Washington.
“The theme in the market right now is definitely hope and optimism versus the on the ground dynamic with Covid,” said Faranello. “The real question is can the vaccine rally hold up if we see the virus rise and we continue to see shutdowns. How does the market perform in light of that?”
Krosby said she expects the market to watch for vaccine news. “The question I think is now whether or not we see the emergency authorization given to Pfizer and followed by Moderna,” she said. “I think that is a catalyst to the market because that is when you will start to see the vaccine distributed.” The Food and Drug Administration’s vaccine advisory committee has a meeting set for Dec. 10 to discuss emergency authorization for the Pfizer
Analysts expect investors to continue to gravitate to value and cyclicals, since they could have the biggest gains compared to already high priced big tech. But tech is still attractive.
“We still see the Nasdaq leading,” said Krosby. “Whereas we enjoyed the vaccine related boom in the market, the fact is that investors and and traders are looking for big tech names to give them that growth in earnings and revenues.”
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
Major Indices for this past week:
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
December Almanac: Small Caps Have Shined
December is now the number three S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials month since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the top Russell 2000 (1979) month and third best for NASDAQ (1971) and Russell 1000 (1979). In 2018, DJIA suffered its worst December performance since 1931 and its fourth worst December going all the way back to 1901. However, the market rarely falls precipitously in December and a repeat of 2018 is not highly likely. When December is down it is usually a turning point in the market—near a top or bottom. If the market has experienced fantastic gains leading up to December, stocks can pullback in the first half of the month.
In the last seventeen election years, December’s ranking changed modestly to #2 DJIA, #5 NASDAQ, but S&P 500 remains #3. Small caps, measured by the Russell 2000, have had a field day in election-year Decembers. Since 1980, the Russell 2000 has lost ground just once in ten election years in December. The average small cap gain in all ten years is a solid 3.0%. The Russell 2000’s single loss was in 1980 when the Prime Rate was 21.5%.
Sector Weights Rising and Falling
For most of the past year, one significant trend on a sector by sector basis has been the outperformance of sectors like Technology and Consumer Discretionary. The relative strength lines of these sectors have consistently shown outperformance versus the rest of the S&P 500 as a whole, but since August, other sectors have begun to take the wheel. As we noted in today's Sector Snapshot, just about every sector has had a banner month in November with some of the biggest month to date rallies of the past 30 years, but some sectors have seen much larger returns than others. One of the best examples of this has been Energy which has risen over 35% in November. Similarly, Financials has risen an astounding 19.5% this month compared to more modest but still significant rallies of around 10% from Tech and Consumer Discretionary. Given those large degrees of outperformance, the relative strength lines of Energy and Financials have taken a sharp turn higher in recent weeks. Similarly, they have seen a turnaround in their weightings in the S&P 500 as shown in the charts below.
Over the past three months, the Financial sector has gained a full percentage point weighting while the Technology sector has lost 1.36 percentage points with a decline in weighting in three straight months. For Financials, that is the largest gain in weighting in a three month span since January 2017. For Tech, outside of the reshuffling in 2018 that saw a large share of its weight change into Communication Services, the last time the sector lost this much or more in weighting in three months was November of 2008. Prior to this recent string of losing weight over the past three months, Tech had seen weight gain in every month from October of last year through August. Even though the weight loss has been significant, it has only put a dent in the increased share of the entirety of the past year as the sector's weight is only back down to where it was in May.
Similarly, looking at the other sectors, while Financials have added a full percentage point in share over the past few months, that follows nine months of declines running from last December through August. That brings the sector's weighting back above 10% in the S&P 500, but that is only at the highest level since March. Similarly, Materials and Industrials have also seen their weights rise for three and four months in a row, respectively. As for Energy, the 0.44 percentage point gain in November is set to snap six straight months of declines; the longest such streak since at least 1990. As with Financials, that turn around this month has only put a dent in the longer term trend of weight loss as Energy's weighting is now only back to its highest level since July. Opposite of Energy, Consumer Discretionary is on pace to lose weight for the first time since March.
A Month to Be Thankful For
Heading into today with just three trading days left in November, the average Russell 1,000 stock was up 17.44% month to date. As shown below, not one of the five largest stocks is up even close to 17% on the month. For a market that had recently been driven higher in large part because of the five mega-cap Tech names, November has seen the mega-caps stall a bit while the rest of the market has seen broad participation. This is the type of breadth that market bulls have been waiting and hoping for.
Of the 35 largest stocks in the Russell 1,000, Tesla (TSLA) is up the most so far this month with a gain of 43%. The other big winners include Chevron (CVX), JP Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Disney (DIS), and Comcast (CMCSA). Not one stock in the top 35 is down on the month, but the ones that are up the least are Netflix (NFLX), Procter & Gamble (PG), Amazon (AMZN), and Home Depot (HD).
Looking at sectors, the average Energy stock in the Russell 1,000 is up 46% month-to-date but still down 27% year-to-date. Three other sectors have seen their stocks average MTD gains of more than 20%: Financials, Industrials, and Real Estate. Stocks in the Health Care and Utilities sectors are up the least on an average basis this month, but even these underperformers are still up more than 5%.
There are 37 stocks in the Russell 1,000 up more than 50% so far in November. Below is a list of this month's biggest winners. Coty (COTY) and Nordstrom (JWN) stand out the most with gains of more than 100%, followed by Spirit AeroSystems (SPR), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Diamondback Energy (FANG), and Empire State Realty (ESRT). The list of biggest winners this month is full of names that got hit hardest by COVID in areas like energy, travel, retail, and real estate. Notably, while these stocks are up an average of 68.5% in November, they're still down an average of 23% on the year. On a median basis, they're down even more year-to-date at -31.55%.
Biden - Best Since Reagan
The market started off November on a positive note, and even after the election has continued to add to its gains. Through the close today (11/24), the S&P 500 is up 7.90% since the close on Election Day. Relative to every other Presidential election since the beginning of the S&P back in 1928, the three-week performance of the S&P 500 following this Election Day ranks as the second-best of all time. It came down right to the wire, but the only other US President to see a stronger market reaction to their election (or re-election) was Ronald Reagan in 1980 (7.97%). Behind Reagan and Biden, the only other Presidents where the S&P 500 experienced an upside move of 5%+ in reaction to their elections were Hoover in 1928 and Clinton in 1996.
On the downside, the most negative reaction of the market in the three weeks after Election Day was the 14.75% decline following President Obama's election in 2008. In addition to Obama, the S&P 500's four other three-week downside moves of more than 5% came after the elections of Truman in 1948, the election of George W Bush in 2000 (although at the time it was unknown who was the winner of that election), the election of Franklin D Roosevelt in 1932, and Dwight D Eisenhower's re-election in 1956.
In aggregate, the S&P 500 hasn't historically responded all that great in the three weeks after a Presidential election. For every one since 1928, the median return of the S&P 500 in the three weeks after Election Day has been a gain of just 0.35%. Breaking out returns by party, in the three weeks after a Democratic candidate is elected, the S&P 500's median performance is a decline of 1.11% compared to a median gain of 3.04% when a Republican is elected.
DJIA 1,000 Point Thresholds
What a wild year 2020 has been! With the DJIA closing above 30,000 today, it was the second first-time upside break of a 1,000 point threshold this year. While there have only been two new upside crosses of 1,000 point thresholds, due to the sharp pullback in March from the pandemic that briefly took the DJIA below 19,000 on a closing basis, there have actually been 12 different upside 1,000 point thresholds at some point in the year.
The table below lists the first time that the DJIA closed above each 1,000 point threshold in its history along with the total number of times the index has crossed that level on a closing basis throughout history. The thousand point level that has seen the most crosses on a closing basis was 11,000 (87 crosses) while 10,000 ranks second at 67.
Obviously, the higher the DJIA goes, the less impactful a move of 1,000 points becomes. At current levels, 1,000 points represents just 3.3%, which is really nothing more than a very bad day in the market. Given the diminishing impact of 1,000 points in the DJIA these days, their significance declines. Even still, the twelve new 1,000-point crosses since the 2016 election has given the President (who has publicly discussed the stock market more than any other President in history) plenty of ammunition to tweet about.
30,000 Reasons To Be Thankful
As 2020 winds down, it has been an extremely tough year on all of us. Still, there are many reasons to be thankful and today we will share some reasons investors should be thankful.
Stocks have had one of the largest reversals ever in 2020, something to be thankful for. In fact, this could be the first year ever to see the S&P 500 down more than 30% peak-to-trough and finish higher.
We should also be thankful that Congress was split in 2020, likely marking the 11th consecutive year the S&P 500 gained under a split Congress. Gridlock is good they tell us and that very well could be true yet again.
Want something else to be thankful for? We likely will have a split Congress for another two years after the two Georgia runoffs are official.
Let’s be thankful that it is looking like stocks once again will be higher the year a President is up for re-election. In fact, you have to go back to FDR in the ‘40s the last time the S&P 500 was lower for the year when a President was up for re-election.
Let’s be thankful that the fastest bear market in history (only 16 days) is officially a thing of the past.
We are thankful that we are in a new bull market, which if history plays out once again, could have a lot of life left to it. In fact, the average bull market has lasted more than five years.
“Let’s be thankful that the huge move off the March lows was a major clue of more strength,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “We noted at the time (many different ways) that the enormous move we saw off the March lows likely suggested significantly higher prices, while many ignored the market signals and instead looked for a re-test for months on end.”
The 20-days off the March lows was the second best 20-day rally ever and sure enough, the returns have been very strong.
We are finally seeing many stocks participate in this bull market, another reason to be thankful. In fact, the Value Line Arithmetic Index recently made new all-time highs. This index is a great look at what the ‘average’ stock is doing and is a sign that this move isn’t being led by just a few large cap tech stocks.
Let’s be thankful that the NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline line is at new highs. This looks at how many stocks are going up versus down and new highs are a sign of very healthy participation.
Emerging markets have started to turn higher and we are thankful that this group could be on the verge of a major breakout to new highs, clearing their peak from 2007. As we move into ’21, this is one group we think could continue to do quite well for investors.
Global investors should be thankful, as the MSCI Global Index broke out to new highs as well, suggesting this rally isn’t only about the US anymore.
We upgraded our view on small caps in September and the Russell 2000 Index is currently on pace to have its best monthly return ever. Investors should be thankful that this group is finally participating, as there are many more small caps than large caps, another sign of improving breadth, while small caps are also more domestic by nature and could be suggesting a strong US economy next year.
Investors should be thankful for the incredible strength around the election, as the S&P 500 gained more than 1% four consecutive days. This is extremely rare, yet, extremely bullish going out a year.
As we showed in Frothy Sentiment Rides Bullish Technicals, the huge number of stocks in the S&P 500 making new monthly highs should make bulls quite thankful.
Earnings are expected to see a major bounce back, as the global economy gets back online next year, making many investors quite thankful.
Economic forecasts may not develop as predicted.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the final reason to be thankful? Dow at 30,000!
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 11.30.20 Before Market Open:
Monday 11.30.20 After Market Close:
Tuesday 12.1.20 Before Market Open:
Tuesday 12.1.20 After Market Close:
Wednesday 12.2.20 Before Market Open:
Wednesday 12.2.20 After Market Close:
Thursday 12.3.20 Before Market Open:
Thursday 12.3.20 After Market Close:
Friday 12.4.20 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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Friday 12.4.20 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Zoom Video Communications, Inc. $471.61
Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, November 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.75 per share on revenue of $694.51 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.99 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.73 to $0.74 per share on revenue of $685.00 million to $690.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 971.43% with revenue increasing by 316.89%. The stock has drifted higher by 7.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 72.1% above its 200 day moving average of $274.11. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,957 contracts of the $500.00 call expiring on Friday, December 4, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 15.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 15.3% move in recent quarters.
Salesforce $247.63
Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, December 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.75 per share on revenue of $5.25 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.83 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.73 to $0.74 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 25.00% with revenue increasing by 16.33%. Short interest has increased by 47.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.9% above its 200 day moving average of $199.80. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,759 contracts of the $260.00 call and 8,560 contracts of the $260.00 put expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.9% move in recent quarters.
At Home Group Inc. $19.14
At Home Group Inc. (HOME) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, December 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.63 per share on revenue of $470.00 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estiamtes are for year-over-year revenue growth of 47.46%. Short interest has increased by 9.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 93.5% above its 200 day moving average of $9.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 522 contracts of the $18.00 call expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 26.2% move in recent quarters.
CrowdStrike, Inc. $150.83
CrowdStrike, Inc. (CRWD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, December 2, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.01 per share on revenue of $213.70 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.04 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $211.00 million to $215.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 111.11% with revenue increasing by 70.80%. Short interest has increased by 43.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 51.8% above its 200 day moving average of $99.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, November 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,249 contracts of the $115.00 put expiring on Friday, June 18, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 11.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.7% move in recent quarters.
DocuSign $226.87
DocuSign (DOCU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, December 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.14 per share on revenue of $360.38 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $358.00 million to $362.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 7.69% with revenue increasing by 44.44%. The stock has drifted lower by 3.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 38.6% above its 200 day moving average of $163.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 6,534 contracts of the $180.00 call expiring on Friday, March 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 10.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.0% move in recent quarters.
Dollar General Corporation $218.01
Dollar General Corporation (DG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Thursday, December 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.97 per share on revenue of $8.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.30 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 38.73% with revenue increasing by 14.43%. Short interest has increased by 8.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.1% above its 200 day moving average of $187.80. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, November 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 893 contracts of the $220.00 call expiring on Friday, December 4, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.3% move in recent quarters.
Momo Inc. $15.12
Momo Inc. (MOMO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 AM ET on Tuesday, December 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $542.76 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.42 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $542.00 million to $557.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 43.28% with revenue decreasing by 12.85%. Short interest has decreased by 25.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.7% below its 200 day moving average of $19.56. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,128 contracts of the $19.00 call expiring on Friday, December 4, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.
Marvell Technology Group Ltd. $45.11
Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, December 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.25 per share on revenue of $750.38 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.27 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.22 to $0.28 per share on revenue of $712.00 million to $788.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 47.06% with revenue increasing by 13.27%. Short interest has increased by 69.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 22.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.9% above its 200 day moving average of $32.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 13,018 contracts of the $50.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 7.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.4% move in recent quarters.
Autohome Inc. $105.89
Autohome Inc. (ATHM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:30 AM ET on Monday, November 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.08 per share on revenue of $326.75 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $317.00 million to $323.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 31.71% with revenue increasing by 7.62%. Short interest has decreased by 12.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.3% above its 200 day moving average of $84.51. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,382 contracts of the $90.00 put expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.4% move in recent quarters.
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks.
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ROCH DD: Acquisition of PureCycle
| PureCycle: The Overlooked Green Play Summary - Polypropylene (“PP”) plastic has a $98 billion global market spread across a wide range of industries and products of which <1% of that market is derived from recycled material.
- PureCycle is a technology leader in recycling PP, it possesses a patented and proven purification process that produces nearly virgin-quality resin from plastics.
- Strong pushes from both consumers and regulatory bodies to move towards the use of recycled plastic make for a great opportunity in an untapped market.
- Despite strong market demand, PureCycle is the only player in the game with both the technology and cost competitiveness to supply recycled PP. As a result, it has already been approached with overwhelming interest from corporations.
- To play their parts in the drive for “Going Green” many corporations are targeting high rates of recycled content in PP products for the future. PureCycle’s global commercial partners to date include L’Oreal, Procter & Gamble, Total, and BMW, as well as several high-quality investors.
- There is a tremendous risk/reward opportunity at current prices, with revenue and EBITDA achieving hyper growth as plants come online with attractive economics, margins, and high ROIC. Assuming 30x EBITDA, TP YE’25 is $237 with shares trading at $19.00 today.
The Play There is an increasingly big push from both environmentally-conscious consumers and governmental regulation to solve the building global plastic problem. As the Democrats assume power in Washington a push for environmental policy is expected, and single use plastic being banned in several states is just one example of the regulation to be expected for the future. Most investors are focused on green energy and consumer technology, while waste management and recyclables go overlooked. PureCycle is a revolutionary technology company focused on transforming waste PP into virgin-like resin. The same story that is driving enthusiasm for Enphase, Sunrun, and Tesla can be applied and seen for PureCycle Technologies. This is a massive global market for its taking, as no other companies or technologies can efficiently address PP recycling at scale. PureCycle holds the exclusive license to its patented solvent-based purification recycling technology, with the ability to commercialize it and bring recycled PP to market. With a disruptive technology, strong moat around the process, and tremendous demand given the consumer and regulatory environment, this creates an extremely exciting opportunity. The SPAC Deal PureCycle has struck a deal with ROTH CH Acquisition I that is expected to be finalized by the end of Q1 2021. PureCycle is to be acquired by ROTH CH Acquisition I with $76.5 million in trust. The deal is valuing the post-merger company at a $1.2 pro forma market capitalization and a $826 million Enterprise Value. The Enterprise Value is from the 118.3 million shares of ROCH capital sold at $10 plus the $310 million in debt that PureCycle raised by selling municipal bonds and $60 million in convertible notes minus the $667 million in cash that PureCycle will receive from the selling the shares. PureCycle plans on using the cash to finish Plant 1 and begin construction in Europe on Plant 2. The Market PP is used across a wide range of industries, including consumer packaged goods, electronics, automotive, building and construction, and agriculture. At the moment you see virgin PP in plastic containers, potato chip bags, razors, as well as food grade applications. The recycled PP at the moment can only be used for dark plastic applications such as trash cans, rugs, and plastic furniture due to the greying color and unpleasant odors that still remain. https://preview.redd.it/c4vn3wtzo9g61.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee1759789b07a8f84b5340b9bd88ba33f7e39cca The annual global demand of PP is roughly 173 billion pounds selling at approximately $0.57 a pound landing the total addressable market at ~$98 billion. The PP market has grown at an average of 4% a year for the past 5 years and is expected to continue to climb at similar rates in the coming years. As of 2020, due to polypropylene being extremely difficult to recycle, less than 1% (.8%) of all purchased PP is recycled. The demand potential for high quality recyclable PP, technology moat, and large time and cost barrier to entry positions PureCycle in a very strong place to start to meet the demand and create a recycle loop that the market is desiring. https://preview.redd.it/1tw33st1p9g61.png?width=580&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca2fad49c9c136dd4e6881f59965469a722bb20f An increasing number of companies are now setting sustainability mandates to act as a key differentiator. L’Oreal is targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2025, moving to 100% by 2030, while Procter & Gamble is targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2030. In a $98bn market, broad sustainability goals targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2025 represents a $49bn opportunity in the next five years. The demand side of this equation can be satisfied by PureCycle’s world-first recycling process, as it produces high quality resin without compromising appearance, purity or performance. PureCycle’s product quality has been tested and validated by Procter & Gamble, large contractual customers, and third-party engineering specialists. PureCycle is the only player able to capitalize on this tremendous demand opportunity and has already pre-sold 4x their existing capacity – all without a sales force. This technology can close the recycling loop for PP and be delivered in a cost-effective way. Proprietary Technology with Tremendous Pricing Upside PureCycle developed a physical separation process that utilizes a specialized solvent based purification process. All unit operations are well-known and commercially available at scales much larger than required by PureCycle and involves process operating conditions comparable to current polyolefin production conditions. This includes standard equipment like a Scheibel Extraction Column, a Decanter, Settler and Solid Extraction, candle filters, adsorption filters. This is important because it means the equipment is readily available and at the size that would be needed to scale the operations. The unique aspect here is what goes into the process, the filters/solvent used, temperature and pressure maintenance etc. This process also only consumes 1/7th the energy and is more cost efficient than producing virgin polypropylene. PureCycle can essentially recycle anything that has high PP content and create virgin quality resin. The attractive pricing upside is easily found in the market, with rates of virgin PP selling at ~$0.57 / lb and recycled PP costing between $1.00 to $2.00 / lb. With regulation and consumer demand driving businesses to buy recycled PP and PureCycle having a much higher quality product produced at a lower cost to other recycled PP, it is safe to say there is a lot of pricing upside potential. https://preview.redd.it/v4e28pw3p9g61.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=32e5e3f697bb3cededce21b510c86bc50ee54f63 Unit Economics https://preview.redd.it/jm8d9bhfp9g61.png?width=1013&format=png&auto=webp&s=833182a47b463fc7190c078236cccfe121e9314f Plant 1, which is being built now in Ironton, OH, will be PureCycle’s least efficient plant with modeled price / lb of $0.90 and EBITDA / lb of $0.45. Plant 2 will be a more efficient plant with improved unit economics of $0.55 / lb. The forecasted business is to include 5 plant clusters, that are much more efficient, with 825m pounds a year in capacity. The clusters give competitive advantage by leveraging the same infrastructure and reduced capex. PureCycle’s model was structured around a municipal bond that they raised, negotiated at 14 cents a pound for feedstock. However, owners of plastic waste are generally charged cost to get rid of it, which gives PureCycle a great opportunity to leverage the system to capture pricing at a much cheaper price point. The FCF and EBTIDA margin they are able to generate is extremely attractive at 58% and 56% even at the $1.00 price / lb. PureCycle’s growth strategy targets over $800 million in revenue with EBITDA margins in excess of 50% by 2024. The current business plan has PureCycle building ~ 1 billion in capacity over the coming 3-4 years and at $1 a pound results in $1b of revenue. At a 50% EBTIDA margin, PureCycle will do 500m in EBTIDA. All of this results in extremely attractive top line math, unit economics into margin profile, and return on invested capital. Additionally, the funding on these facilities can get 80% debt for the project level capex. Competition? Other approaches to plastic recycling have existed in the market for decades, but they are limited in application, not cost competitive, and have failed to gain any meaningful traction as a result. Chemical recycling does not yield contaminant-free resin – limiting its potential food grade applications – and also has high energy costs. Mechanical recycling only works in limited use cases – not with any discolored feedstock, as the output becomes gray – and the product generally smells and looks unprofessional with melt flow index issues. PureCycle owns the only process that can take any feedstock and produce resin at a comparable virgin quality to virgin plastic -- usable for food-grade consumption. PureCycle also has a solid margin profile, as they are able to produce the product at 1/7th the energy cost of virgin. https://preview.redd.it/qgw28wjip9g61.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=4a4b356b88c2dda1bc87fce0b79a3f13ef9bb9b0 The Bears Case Some investors are worried about the fact that Procter and Gamble are the true owners of the patents that created the technology and PureCycle is only leasing them. The concern is that for some reason P&G licensed out the technology to other players. P&G decided to invest and develop the technology to solve a problem that they had with desiring to make their packaging from recyclable products. They decided that they did not have the commercial ability to bring it to market and made more sense to find a 3rd party to scale the business and PureCycle was chosen. The lead scientists and people from P&G are still working with PureCycle in more of a partnership than simply licensing the technology out. P&G is still very heavily invested and desires to see the success and scaling of PureCycle for its own benefits and goals and has agreed to be on the line to personally protect the patents for PureCycle as part of the deal. The current deal with PureCycle is an agreement to perpetuity, which should ease any hesitations by investors. No one else will be licensing this process/technology for the duration of the patents and Purecycle has developed a lot of their own patents as part of the commercialization efforts. Another case against the buy is the fact that it is a SPAC deal between Roth and PureCycle and there is increased risk. This is in fact true, but the reality is the deal has already been announced and is simply waiting for the SEC to sign off. To date the SEC has not stopped an announced merger from closing for regulatory reasons and there is no reason to believe this deal should be any different. Roth is excited about the partnership as they view the business as a slam dunk opportunity. Guaranteed Revenue and LOI’s Major global commercial customers including L’Oreal, Procter & Gamble, Ravago and Total have already signed agreements committing to purchasing hundreds of millions of pounds a year. These contracts have already guaranteed 4 years of maximum output from PureCycle’s Plant 1. Many other major retailers have written LOI’s and are potential to fund and drive the growth of other facilities and plants. PureCycle has a deal with Nestle who has a goal and company commitment to seeing that 100% of its packaging is 100% recycled by 2025. I believe that for investors, PureCycle having deals with blue chip companies for long durations significantly de-risks any danger to revenue projections. Forecasting Valuation From a valuation perspective, by looking at the landscape, environmental services companies, waste managers of the world trade at ~10x – 18x EBITDA. This includes players like Advanced Disposal, Republic Services, Waste Management. The process technology players such as Albemarle, Amyris, Trex, Rogers Corporation get a larger premium, trading at a ~20x – 25x EBITDA. For the players with high growth, high margin potential and in ESG, the multiple starts to jump up quite significantly to ~30x+ EBITDA, companies such as Enphase, Solaredge, Array, Plug Power, Ballard Power etc. https://preview.redd.it/lv19ramnp9g61.png?width=667&format=png&auto=webp&s=61b52a36e14408714d9d53af64a566c165e1c8a8 Although there are no direct comps to PureCycle as the technology is one of a kind, I looked at Danimer Scientific (DNMR) who also recently completed a SPAC deal. Both companies have been formed from P&G developed patents to address the plastic problem that the environment faces. Danimer did purchase the patents outright but have owned them for close to 10 years and are still working to get the business going. Based on side-by-side comparisons of both companies self-projected business you can clearly see that PureCycle is trading at a significant discount. https://preview.redd.it/uia8vkjop9g61.png?width=999&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd93ab3b38c14f6593a55e7fd1c067141a4be7c3 Conclusion PureCycle (ROCH), with high value add and a unique offering, high margins, high expected growth, a proprietary process, large addressable market, and ESG is trading at an extremely attractive price point at 3.8x EBITDA. There is significant potential for rapid multiple expansion as their development plan is successfully executed. This is a hyper growth story in revenue/EBITDA as plants come online with attractive economics. Financial projections show ~60% gross margin on the products and a ~30% ROIC for future plants at scale. The return profile here is extremely lucrative even with the pre-revenue valuation. Assuming 30x EBITDA, TP here is $237 by YE’25 with shares trading at $27 today. DISCLOSURE: I am currently Long common stock of ROCH. All investment decisions are yours to make. submitted by AlphainvestR to TheDailyDD [link] [comments] |
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